Unlike our
HWCI NCAA pools, these soccer pools are not run on software but in Excel. As such, I created a quick brute force method of calculating the 32,768 possible outcomes is done which is extremely slow (or there is an Excel macro setting I'm not toggling), taking more than 12 hours. Of course, after tomorrow, that will be cut by 75% (just 8,192 outcomes) so it's really this first run after the Group Stage is complete that takes forever and making any corrections (forgetting to set the correct # of entries), means doing it again.
And what an unexpected result... no one is eliminated from the top 4 money prizes. Zero. This is a pre-determined non-elimination leg. But if you think about it, with the top 14 teams making it plus 26% and 37% picking WAL and CZE, everyone's bracket is in good shape and most will pick different outcomes going forward. Unless you are like my pick Futbol Fabone Twelf (can only win 4th), whose FRA over POR final is the same as four others and far behind in the standings, you have less margin for error). But hey, a 0.06% chance to win something is better than Otsego2 who has a 0.05% chance (16 in 32,768). Slyelf has the best chance to win money at 42.1% with FrankfromSeattle (29.9%), Club Med (24.6%), and NoFixing (21.9%) all having better than a 1 in 5 chance.
In the race to become the 3rd HWCI EURO Pool champion, 43 entries have a chance with Slyelf with a 15.2% chance to win it all with FrankfromSeattle next at 10.1%. Remember, these possibilities include ties, so a positive outcome is being tied for 1st but you could still lose the tiebreaker (total goals in semifinals and final) and finish 2nd. Same with overall, you are only guaranteed to finish at least a tie for 4th but you can lose the tiebreaker and end up with nothing.
You can always find the "Possibilities" tab in the main menu next to "Standings".
The Knockout stage begins tomorrow and the upper bracket features #1 Belgium, reining Euro champ Portugal, everyone's favorite France, very hot Italy (undefeated in 30 straight), and three-time Euro champion Spain. The bottom bracket features a Germany team six minutes from elimination and a lame duck coach and an England team that has only scored twice (13 teams scored more than 2 goals in ONE match). But both play each other, providing a winnable route to the semifinal for Netherlands, Czech Rep, Wales, or Denmark. ENG is the only team that will play at home (London) as home teams went 13-7-4 in the group stage.
In other oddities, we already have more PKs awarded (14 - five via VAR) and own goals (8) in the Euros ever. French fans mistook Budapest for Bucharest and traveled there by mistake for the 3rd match but they could extend their stay as that is where France will play Switzerland. Although it looks cool, UEFA correctly blocked Munich from lighting it up as a disagreement to Hungarian law (yes, they were playing HUN) as political statements are not allowed (hence, my nickname Glory to the Heroes which was also blocked by UEFA on Ukraine's jersey since when combined with Glory to Ukraine, was a rallying cry) - had Munich wanted to light up the Rainbow Stadium for all 3 matches to support LGBTQ+ month, I'm sure that would've been okay and UEFA did allow the German GK to wear a rainbow captain's armband. Cristiano Ronaldo is one goal way from the International record (he's at 109). While Ronaldo is 3/3 on PKs, the rest of the players are 5/11. A European tournament meant Poland traveled 2,200 miles twice (Seville, ESP to St. Petersburg, RUS) while Switzerland (Rome, ITA to Azerbaijan, AZE; and now to Bucharest, ROU) and Belgium (Copenhagen, DEN and St. Petersburg, RUS; now to Seville, ESP) are logging lots of miles as well. SUI, however, will have 3 extra days rest than FRA.
Edit (7/3): Small correction to my Excel file... there were 40 who could win pool (not 43) but all 49 were still alive.
CERRITOS TENNIS CENTER, CA (smt) - Was it so predictable? Everyone seemed to know F2-Portugal, F3-France, and F4-Germany would make the Round of 16. But a wild ride to get there with GER six minutes from being eliminated. Of course, D1-England would win their group. But with two lackluster 1-0 wins and scoring just two goals? It seems the only real surprises were D4-Czech Rep and A3-Wales making the cut. Could be the strongest Round of 16 we've seen.
DIGNITY HEALTH SPORTS PARK, CARSON, CA (smt) - Remember the Group of Death does include F1-Hungary, right? And that soccer powers F4-Germany and A2-Italy were on a downturn? Or that D3-Scotland is the little brother to D1-England? Well...