Early Goals Set Tone (7/3)

DEN GK Fingertips Preserve Lead

2B-Denmark scored in the 5', added another in the first half, and held on for a 2-1 win over 3D-Czech Rep to advance to the semis for the first time since '92. DEN had just 13 shots which means they are 3-0 when shooting 16 times or less and 0-2 when shooting 22 times or more.

1D-England scored in the 4', added two quick goals after halftime, and completed the rout of 3C-Ukraine, 4-0.  This was ENG's first match away from London and they didn't lose a beat, doubling their previous goal total (now 8 goals).  They now head back home (their last 3 goals were headed in) for the Semifinal and hopefully, the Final.

DEN was picked by 9 eliminating no one.  21 picked ENG eliminating 2 (leaving 11) and eliminating Forza Roma from winning pool, leaving 5 contenders.  5 got both right while 24 went 0-2.  Three (Avenger #3, Footballsack, and Glory to the Heroes) got 3 of the 4 semifinalists while 12 got none.

Avenger #3 is now in the lead with 102 pts.  FrankfromSeattle also reached the century mark and is 2nd.  Avenger #3, Footballsack, and Gli Azzurri have a 1 in 4 chance to win the pool while Carseroni and Rich-inho each have a 1 in 8 chance to win the pool.  Six others can finish 2nd to 4th.  Full possible outcomes are outlined here.

Note: There was a slight correction to the possibilities as detailed here.

A Missing $ Sign

Should be $E$79:$E$80

Just a heads up that I found an error in my Excel file which affected a few entries that had ENG in the Semis but didn't get the points... ended up that a missing $ sign (which keeps row the same if you move different rows, but didn't as I moved a row down in this case) in the equation didn't carry over for the last few columns, which mainly affected Fantasy.  Thus, Fantasy essentially takes over my Glory to the Heroes pick, and finishes 4th in the scenarios I thought I would finish 4th for.  Thus, I had false hopes for a few days ;-)  The only other change is that Spermicidal FC (who would've had to win a 3-way tie for 4th if DEN>ESP in final) joined me, leaving 11 entries still alive instead of the original 12.

We still have the same 5 who can win the pool.  Daily update later tonight and then the email update tomorrow.  

BTW, I also fixed my possibilities Excel macro which should reduce the time to run the 32K scenarios after the Group Stage from 12-20 hours down to 1-4 hours, depending on PC resources.  So I may go back and edit the possibilities with this small correction.  I hope now I have tailored my Excel file for 24/32 team tourneys but it will have to chance in 2026 when the World Cup goes to 48 teams (hence, another reason I am not keen in doing the Copa or Gold Cups -- too random that small programming errors to adjust for special tourneys frustrate me!).

Have a safe and happy Independence Day weekend!

Didn't Expect These Two Teams This Early (7/2)

Who won the PSO?

When the tournament started, all the talk was about 1B-Belgium (#1 team in the world) and 1F-France (deeply talented roster) with maybe a wishful 1D-England thrown in and a little love for reigning champs 3F-Portugal.  1A-Italy was rumbling quietly through a 27-match unbeaten streak while some expected 2E-Spain to regain power in a couple years to let the team mature. Even our own Eric's Foster's Football Brew labeled both ITA and ESP as "pretenders" rather than "contenders".

Well, the time may be now as ESP got an own goal (the tourney's 10th) and survived the penalty shootout with an unfortunate and stubborn 3A-Switzerland, 3:1 (1:1).  ESP missed their first PSO kick, their 6th straight miss, while SUI made their first, their 6th straight make.  But after that, ESP got back on track and SUI had two saved and the latter skied high.  

A very harsh straight red card in the 77' stopped SUI from trying to break a 1-1 tie (after tying it in the 68') and settled to defend.  In the extra time, ESP outshot SUI 17-0 forcing SUI's GK to make 8 saves but SUI succeeded to getting to the PSO to hopefully duplicate their PSO win over FRA.  The ref should have given the yellow first and then let VAR advise on a red.  By giving the Red, there would never be clear evidence to overturn the ref's decision on intent.  You can go Y->R but never R->Y.  Unfortunate.

Meanwhile, ITA scored twice in the first half (a 3rd was ruled offsides by VAR) and held off BEL, 2-1.  Both teams were riding 14-match win streaks in Euro qualifying/tournament but it was ITA who advances, now unbeaten in 32 straight.  BEL had several near misses but didn't manage a shot on goal in the second half.  The #1 team and the golden generation fell short again and we should see new blood for the World Cup next year.

8 picked ESP eliminating 4 who can win pool (11 can win) and 2 for money (24 can win money). 14 picked ITA which eliminated 4 from winning pool (7 left) and 11 from money (13 left).  Carseroni is now in the lead with 96 pts as 1 of 3 (Footballsack (2nd-Tied, 93), Saharm17 (16th-T, 83) were the other 2) who got both correct.  30 went 0-2.  BigRedMessi 1 clinched last with 68 pts (while my Futbol Fabone Twelf (47th-T) will be stuck on 69 pts forever).

But it's Gli Azurri (7th-T, 88) with the best chance to win the pool (31.3%) and Avenger #3 (4th-T, 90) with the best chance to win money (65.6%).  Footballsack (59.4%), Forza Roma (2nd-T) (56.3%), and Carseroni (50%) are the other three with at least a 50/50 chance at money.  Slyelf (4th-T), who at least tied for the most Group Stage wins (25), R16 qualifiers (15), and R16 wins (15), and led since Match Day 11, can no longer win the pool here on Day 18.

Fantasy is 6th (89) but is eliminated while my second pick, Glory to the Heroes, is tied for 20th (82) and can still win 4th.  Rich-inho is 12th (86) and can still win the pool.

What's the #1 Question Plus Quarterfinal Preview

GOLETA, CA -- As we head into the quarterfinals featuring three 3rd place teams, powerhouses reborn in Spain and Italy, and a hopeful England team hoping to bring the trophy home at Wembley.  2E-Spain avoids 1F-France and will play 3A-Switzerland who rallied from a 3-1 deficit to beat the French in the Penalty Shootout.  The #1 team in the world, 1B-Belgium, plays the hottest team in 1A-Italy, who are unbeaten in their past 31 matches.  

The other group winner, 1D-England won its grudge match against 2F-Germany (it was going to be either them or France or 3F-Portugal) and now get 3C-Ukraine but the match will not be in London for once, but in Rome.  The winner will play either 3D-Czech Republic, who shocked 1C-Netherlands, or 2B-Denmark, who lost two games at home, nearly lost a player on the field, but advanced and crushed 2A-Wales 4-0 in the Round of 16.

But for the 15 entries who can win the 3rd HWCI EURO pool, the more important question is what is the first place prize with 49 entries ($490 pot)?  The answer is $240 or equivalent to 0.0072 Bitcoin.  There are 11 other entries that could finish in 2nd, 3rd, or 4th.  2nd place will get $120, 3rd place will get $80, and 4th place will get $50.  Ties will be broken by total goals in the two semifinal and final matches (3 matches and only regulation or extra time goals count -- no PSO goals or 3-0 forfeits).

Good luck to everyone!

Issue # 5.2.1 "You're Unbelievable" (6/30)

 Archive

Wednesday, June 30, 2021          [Dailies: 26-27-28-29]

THREE GROUP WINNERS KNOCKED OUT
Slyelf remains in 1st but Gli Azzurri has best chance to win pool; 26 entries still alive

GOLETA, CA (smt) - While the Group Stage played out as most expected, the Round of 16 produced chaos and unbelievable finishes.  There were 29 goals (3.63/match) with six of those scored in Extra Time (ET).  Half the matches went to ET but just one went to the Penalty Shootout (PSO).  Two teams came back from 3-1 deficits with less than 10 minutes left to force ET while Red Cards doomed two teams.  Substitutes scored 8 times (more than the 6 in the first 36 matches) while yet another own goal happened (9 for the tourney).  Half the group winners lost and three of the four 3rd place teams advanced.  All 3 Group F teams (from the Group of Death) lost while Group B was the only group with its top 2 teams advancing.

2B-Denmark blew out 2A-Wales 4-0 while 3D-Czech Rep and 1D-England posted 2-0 shutouts, the former scoring both goals while up a man and the latter scoring both goals in the last 15 minutes.  1B-Belgium held on to a 1-0 win.  1A-Italy and 2C-Austria played to a nil-nil regulation draw but ITA outscored AUT 2-1 in ET.  3C-Ukraine took advantage of a 1E-Sweden red card in the ET to score a stoppage time winner in ET, winning 2-1. 

Monday was the craziest day as both matches featured the

An Extra Time Stoppage Time Goal (6/29)

120'+1 Goal!

EL SEGUNDO, CA - 1A-England, playing at home, withstood 2F-Germany's attack and scored two late goals to advance to the Quarters, 2-0, posting their 4th straight shutout.  Joachim Low's 15-year tenure with GER ends on a whimper as GER was lucky not lose more than 1-0 to FRA and needed an 84' goal against HUN to advance out of the group.  GER's Thomas Mueller missed a one-on-one with the GK, not even getting the shot on frame which would have tied it.  Amazingly, ENG won a non-PSO Euro match for the first time since '68 and are 10-0-4 in Wembley Stadium.

I love the blue/yellow teams of 1E-Sweden and 3C-Ukraine.  Both teams traded first half goals but an unfortunate (but horrible) tackle by SWE changed the match in the first half of Extra Time as UKR finally capitalized in the 120'+1 (the extra time, stoppage time goal!).

ENG travels for the first time and will be in Rome to face UKR, but if ENG wins, they will be home for the semis and final.  Ironically, UKR benefited when SWE beat POL in the last group stage match to barely make the R16 as the 4th best 3rd place team.

31 picked ENG eliminating 4 (32 still alive) and preventing 5 from winning the pool (15 can win).  3 lost GER as their champ and 17 had them in the Semis.  Fabio was the only one to pick UKR into the Quarters eliminating 6 (26 left).  32 went 1-1 while 17 went 0-2. For the R16, 23 got 5 of 8 while 9 got just 3 of 8.

No change at the top (Slyelf by 2 (90 pts)) but the possibilities are shifting.  Gli Azzurri now has the best chance to win the pool (15.6%) and Slyelf has the best chance at money (57.0%).

Twenty-Three Goals (6/28)

Did that ball just blow past me?

And to think, when the day started, it looked like the terrible 2E-Spain GK misplay for an own goal would be the highlight of the day.  But no!  There were two 3-1 comebacks, 14 goals scored in regulation and extra time and nine goals scored in the penalty shootout (or kicks from the spot) meaning 23 shots saw the back of the net (well, one just crossed the line, our first goal line technology call via the ref's watch).

A hard pass back to the GK skipped by for an own goal giving 2D-Croatia an early 1-0 lead.  But ESP scored three straight to take a 3-1 lead with 13 minutes left.  But CRO did not give up scoring twice, the latter two minutes into stoppage time to force Extra Time.  But in ET, ESP scored twice to pull out a wild 5-3 win, ESP's second straight match scoring five goals (I guess technically, they scored six today).

3A-Switzerland took an early lead and had a chance to double it but missed a PK (Ronaldo 3/3, and the Rest (5/12)) and four minutes later FRA's Karim Benzema scored twice to take the lead.  FRA's 75' goal seemed to seal it but SUI kept attacking to score in the 81' and 90' to complete the comeback.  Extra time started well but then lagged (though FRA hit the crossbar on the last play) and the 3-3 match headed to the PSO.  SUI may have missed the earlier PK but they went 5-for-5 and FRA almost matched, but Kylian Mbappe's kick was saved, giving SUI the 5-4 PSO win.  SUI win their first PSO and make the Quarters for the first time.  The reigning World Cup champions and heavy favorites exit with all that deep talent.

47 had ESP into the Qtrs which prevented two from winning the pool (24 can win it all).  Four picked SUI which eliminated four from winning (leaving 36) and four from winning the pool (leaving 20).  Four went 2-0 (Kona Coast Fauci's, Isayolchap, Spermicidal FC, and NoFixing) while two went 0-2 (Big Blue and Club Med).  After six R16 matches, 31 are 4-2 and 18 are 3-3.  No change at the top with Slyelf still leading by 2 pts (86).

With FRA hurting many entries (19 had them winning it all and 39 in the Semifinals), Slyelf (who has ENG winning it all) now has the best chance at money (53.1%) and winning the pool (15.8%).  Bobby Cee Racer is tied for 22nd (76) but can't win money and NoFixing is tied for 3rd (83) but can't win the pool.  DenMarkMyTerritory is tied for 47th (68) but can still win the pool.

Hand the Ball (6/27)

If I just grab it...

1C-Netherlands, which did not qualify for the 2016 Euros or the 2018 World Cup, disappointed yet again committing a bad handball on a breakaway for a red card as 2D-Czech Republic took full advantage in their 2-0 win.  NED had scored the most goals in the group stage (8) but had zero shots on goal today.  NED had just two shots and no corners in the second half while Patrik Schick put the nail in the coffin in the 80' with his 4th goal.  A panic move, the attempted scoop of the ball by NED's Matthijs de Ligt as he fell at the top of the penalty box with no other Dutch defender close by in the 52' was initially a yellow until VAR gave the red three minutes later.

We will have a new Euro champion as 1B-Belgium outlasted reigning champ 3F-Portugal, 1-0, on their only shot on goal on yet another golazo from outside the box... so many great goals outside the box (can't remember the last LA Galaxy match that had one).  In yet another heavyweight match (can you believe we have already seen FRA-POR, FRA-GER, GER-POR, and now BEL-POR already?  ENG-GER is next!), POR took 16 shots in the second half after falling behind with four of those on goal.  Ronaldo had just a couple of semi-dangerous free kicks (kind of weird we haven't had a direct free kick goal yet).

CZE, ranked #40 in the world, will now face 2B-Denmark and another big showdown will feature BEL and 1A-Italy in the Quarters.

I Kante Lose was the only one to pick CZE into the Quarters to move from a tie for 19th to a tie for 9th.  Two lost NED in their Final.  46 got BEL while 4 lost POR as their champ (14 had them in the Final).  I Kante Lose went 2-0 (but can't win the pool) while 3 went 0-2.  29 have 3 Quarterfinalists while 20 have two.  

7 more can't win money (leaving 40) while 13 more can't win the pool (leaving 26) and losing NED and POR hurt quite a few entries.  FrankfromSeattle has the best chance at winning the pool (14.4%) and money (36.9%) but Slyelf still leads by two (82 pts).  Wolverine1 is now alone in last (63) but can still win 2nd.  Rainman and Rocket Ronaldo are tied for 20th (72) but are eliminated.