Issue # 4.1.3 "Favorites Switching Positions" (After Matchday 3)

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Friday, June 28, 2024
[Dailies: Jun 23-24-25-26 ]

SURPRISING TEAMS QUALIFY; TOP TEAMS STILL ALIVE
Toast leads with 60 pts; 7 get 13 R16 teams correct

Round of 16 set!

PEARL HARBOR, HI (smt)- Seven more draws muddled up the group standings a bit and the two draws in Group E (E2-Slovakia-E3-Romania 1:1, E4-Ukraine-E1-Belgium 0:0) left UKR as the first time to earn 4 points (due to finishing 4th) and not make the Round of 16 (when field expanded to 24 teams).  Two nil-nil draws in Group C (C4-England-C1-Slovenia, C2-Denmark-C3-Serbia) allowed 3-point SVN to sneak into the R16 though they lost out on 2nd place to having more yellow cards than DEN (thanks to a SVN assistant coach picking up a yellow in the first game). 

Upsets rocked Group D and F with #74 F2-Georgia pulling off the biggest upset in Euro history stunning almost a full strength #6 F3-Portugal 2-0 to take 3rd, #25 D3-Austria outlasting #7 D2-Netherlands 3-2 to win Group D, and #28 D1-Poland rallying to tie #2 D4-France 1-1 to push FRA to 2nd place in Group D.

Georgia, Georgia (6/26)

18 YCs

Watching both Group E games

ANAHEIM, CA - F3-Portugal's Ronaldo wanted to score but instead F2-Georgia came up with the biggest Euro upset ever (topping earlier E2-Slovakia over E1-Belgium), stunning POR 2-0 to make the Round of 16 on their first try.  The #75 (okay, the June 20 rankings have them #74) ranked team knocked off #6.  POR, who already had won Group F, had 23 shots but only put 5 on goal.  In a game F4-Czechia needed to win, F1-Türkiye kept the tie until a stoppage time goal gave TUR the 2-1 win.  That game featured a record 18 yellow cards (at least, a coach or two may have gotten one as well, and 2 yellows that brought out a red which count as 1 yellow, so maybe 20?) and 2 red cards (one after the game) in a game the ref let out of control.  Two TUR players (TUR had 11 of the yellows plus maybe the coach) will be suspended for picking up their second yellow in the group stage and one backup GK picked one up.  Had CZE advanced, the ref carded a player on the bench, and that player would've have missed the Round of 16 match.  The 2 reds were the first since the opening match when A2-Scotland picked one up.

Group E started in a unique state (all teams 3 points) and stayed that way (all teams 4 points).  E4-Ukraine was the only one that needed to win if both games drew and outshot BEL 14-12 but couldn't score in the 0-0 draw.  The rain-soaked E2-Slovakia and E3-Romania match also drew (1-1) putting both teams in.  UKR becomes the first Euro team to ever bow out with 4 points (3C-Slovenia with 3 pts advanced) since the field expanded to 24 teams because they finished 4th, not 3rd.  The 4-way tiebreaker put #46 ROU first to play #7 3D-Netherlands of all teams, #3 BEL second (to play #2 2D-France), and #48 SVK third (to play #4 1C-England).  Because it was a 4-way tiebreaker, BEL's win over ROU didn't matter (nor the fact that SVK beat BEL).

Fresh roasted nuts!

24 picked the TUR win, 14 the SVKvROU draw, and 10 the URKvBEL draw.  No one imagined GEO winning.  13 went 2-2 while 23 went 0-4.  All 58 had BEL advancing (barely), 56 had POR, 43 TUR, 36 SVK, and 13 ROU.  Cool Guy, El Buenísimo, and Danglish (56th, 45) actually had GEO making the R16.  Alyonushka (4th-Tied, 56 pts) and Rutin4Putin (4th-T) (coincidentally, the same person) got 5 of the 6 teams.  Flying Elvi (40th-T, 50) only got 2 of the 6.  Alyonushka and Rutin4Putin picked up 17 of 22 possible points (no one else had more than 14) while Flying Elvi got just 6 of 22 points.

Toast still leads with 60 points with El Buenísimo second (59) and Germany Minus One third (58).  Lukakus Lost Brother fell into a tie for last with Cool Guy (44).  Overall, Toast had the most Round Robin wins (21) while Cool Guy had the least (11) (out of 36 possible points).  7 entries got 13 of the 16 teams in the Round of 16 while Lukakus Lost Brother got just 10.

The last 12 matches saw entries only get an average of 3.1 correct (total of 16.3) as 7 more ties reared its ugly head.  Entries got 11.9 teams in the R16.  Email update likely late tomorrow since I'll be traveling in four hours and no elimination runs (still haven't made it efficient), but likely after the R16 is over.  So there is still hope (for now).

Needed to get a local gift for my upcoming trip so went to a local place that actually roasts nuts in house (Fresh Nuts).  I wore my Bratislava, Slovakia t-shirt that I bought when I was there in October 2017.  Who knew SVK would advance?

To be an English Fan (6/25)

AUT sky high for the win

LA PALMA, CA - Wow, how could the early Group D games be so exciting and then Group C games such duds?  D3-Austria's Marcel Sabitzer roofed one over the GK in the 80' to give AUT the Group D title in a 3-2 upset over D2-Netherlands (this reminded me of Landon's first goal in the comeback vs Slovenia in World Cup 2010).  AUT roofed another over the GK a couple minutes later but was called back for offsides. That NED GK is vulnerable if you hit it high at him.  Each team had a PK in a 1-1 draw by D1-Poland and D4-France.  The positions of the top 3 kept changing as each goal was scored.  Approximately:

• Start:  NED 4 pts (2 GF), FRA 4 (1 GF) pts, AUT 3 pts (throughout the day, all 3 were comfortably making the Round of 16)
• 6':  NED own goal puts AUT up 1-0 (AUT 6, FRA 5, NED 4)
• 47': NED ties it 1-1 (NED 5, FRA 5, AUT 4)
• 56': Mbappe finally scores in a Euro on a PK (FRA 7, NED 5, AUT 4).  FRA's two goals have been an own goal and a PK.
• 59': AUT takes the lead 2-1 (FRA 7, AUT 6, NED 4)
• 75': NED ties it again and VAR confirms no handball 2-2 (FRA 7, NED 5, AUT 4)
• 79': After a retake because the FRA GK left the line too early in making the save, Lewandowski's stuttering succeeds on the retry to tie it 1-1 (NED 5, FRA 5, AUT 4)
• 80': AUT go-ahead goal to give them the Group 3-2 (AUT 6, FRA 5, NED 4)

Two scoreless draws defined the C4-England vs C1-Slovenia and C2-Denmark vs C3-Serbia matches.  English fans are just upset.  Ok, something interesting.  I detailed yesterday how B2-Croatia could stay alive with a 3-0 SVN loss and SVN picking up three yellows.  Well, SVN and DEN were similarly tied on head-to-head (1-1 draw), goal difference (0), goals for (2), and with each team picking up 2 yellows, tied on lowest disciplinary points (6).  But the next tiebreaker is the European Qualifying Ranking which DEN was ranked above SVN (#9 vs #15) to take 2nd place.  BUT, what really happened was that SVN had a hidden yellow card, given to an assistant coach in the first match vs DEN.  So DEN won this 7-6 (or 6-7). Oh, and CRO is eliminated with SVN's draw.

Whereas yesterday was a good day for entries, today was a bad day.  Toast was the only one to pick the AUT win, Rainman was the only one to pick the FRAvPOL draw, and no one picked ENG to tie SVN.  17 did get the DENvSRB draw correct.  So Toast went 2-2 today while 40 went 0-4.  Six teams advanced from Groups C & D (remember, you will get F3-Portugal's 3 points tomorrow after Group F completes) today (well, FRA, ENG, and NED technically advanced yesterday but you get the points today).  Cool Guy was the only one to pick SVN into the Round of 16.  All 58 got ENG, 57 got FRA, 56 DEN, 54 NED, and 30 AUT.  24 got 5 of 6 teams  while the other 34 got 4 of 6.  Toast got 17 of 22 possible points to take sole possession of first with 47 pts.  24 got just 14 of 22 points.  El Buenísimo is second with 46 pts and Disabling Below Jobs and Germany Minus One are tied for 3rd with 45 pts.  Cool Guy is still last with 32 pts.

I hate blood work, but today was the annual time to get it done.  Been doing good with long fasting these days (14-16 hours) so not a big deal and found out I can drink lemon water.  The Quest kiosk was pretty cool and had a credit card sized tray to scan the driver's license and insurance card.  One try this time (that is always my worry, they miss the vein) and if you don't use the kiddie needle, the draw goes much, much faster (3 vials today).  I wore my 2010 England home jersey and whereas yesterday the ITA Puma jersey was very thin, this was essentially a polo shirt (thick).  

Can't Hold a Lead (6/24)

97:19 - CRO let it slip away again

CYPRESS, CA - Less than 45 seconds from securing a win, B2-Croatia once again let in a last minute game-tying goal, this time 7:19 into 8 minutes of stoppage time as the 1-1 draw sent B3-Italy into the Round of 16.  They allowed a game-tying goal to B4-Albania 4:23 into 5 minutes of stoppage time last time.  ITA still has not lost back-to-back Euro matches and stumbles into playing 2A-Switzerland in the Round of 16.  B1-Spain's B-team (10 changes) took care of B4-Albania, 1-0, eliminating them.  

Interestingly, the two ties do not eliminate CRO yet - they would need C1-Slovenia to lose 3-0, 4-1 (and SVN needs to pick up 3 yellow cards (1 pt each) or 1 red card (worth 3 pts)), or 5-1 or worse AND F2-Georgia and F4-Czechia to both lose (by any score).  So the six yellows picked up by CRO today (they trail SVN 7-4) could bite them in the butt if they lose the disciplinary points tiebreaker to SVN (if this is tied, CRO wins the overall European qualifier rankings tiebreaker being #14 to SVN's #15).  Will this be the last we'll see of CRO's Luka Modrić who missed a PK (CRO's second miss of the tourney - the only team to miss) but then scored 33 seconds later to become the oldest player to score in a Euro?

A good day for entries as all 58 picked up at least 6 of the 8 possible points today.  55 picked ESP and 18 picked the CROvITA draw.  17 went 2-0 while FC Spermicidals and Cool Guy went 0-2.  All 58 got both ESP and ITA into the Round of 16.  That meant 17 got the max 8 points and two got 6 of 8 pts.  There is a 5-way tie for first (30 pts) with El Buenísimo and Germany Minus One joining 21goals, Disabling Below Jobs, and Toast at the top. Cool Guy is still last with 19 pts.

Shopping around Costco as my son had his weekly scout meeting and saw the USA crest on Michelob Ultra beer cases.  It's sort of sad all these beer companies are combined as this is an Anheuser-Busch  product.  Even Kona Big Wave, which I like, is part of their brand products.  Oh well, I wore my authentic 2022 home ITA jersey with Euro 2020 winners and Nations League patches and oddly, Puma's authentic is very thin, made of Ultraweave technology.  I'd go a size up on these.

As a bonus from last night, saw the SpaceX launch from home and at 8:47, you could clearly see the rocket and even the first separation as it streaked very brightly in the evening sky.  I'm sure we could see it here every couple months or so but this is the first time I timed it correctly.  Pretty cool watching it from our second story window before going outside.  Yes, I was still wearing my USA jersey!

Stoppage Time Magic (6/23)

100th minute stunner

DON KNABE PARK, CERRITOS, CA - Minutes from an upset and minutes from a 0-0 draw, dramatic goals by A1-Germany in the 90'+2 (1:04 of 4 minutes added stoppage time) to tie A4-Switzerland to win Group A and by A3-Hungary in the 90'+10 (9:31 of 10 minutes due an injury) to stun A2-Scotland 1-0 and stay alive, the first of the simultaneous group games is off to a great start.  The Swiss finish 2nd and HUN sits in 3rd with 3 points (but a bad goal differential of -3).  

HUN's win means we lose the possibility of 2-point SCO making the Round of 16 but we still have the possibility of 2-point C1-Slovenia doing the improbable (would need B4-Albania, B2-Croatia, F2-Georgia, and F4-Czechia to all lose).  For the second time, SCO had zero shots on goal and is the only team to do this.

25 got HUN's win and 15 picked the SUIvGER draw.  All 58 had GER advancing and 49 had SUI.  Five went 2-0 in the matches while 23 went 0-2.  49 got both teams advancing while 9 got just one (GER).  El Buenísimo (4th-Tied, 22 pts), BlueIsTheColour I (10th-T, 21), Matt's Mostly Wrong (10th-T), Salah (23rd-T, 20), and Rainman (35th-T, 19) all got the max 8 points today.  At the top, it's a 3-way tie for first with 21goals, Disabling Below Jobs, and Toast tied with 23 pts.  Carseroni (52nd-T, 16), Danglish (57th, 14), and Cool Guy (58th (last), 13) all just got 3 of 8 points.  If HUN were to advance later, 34 entries had them in the Round of 16.  19 lost SCO as a R16 team.

After dropping my kids off for tennis (they hate us as we have finally hit the 90F mark), at Don Knabe Park a lot of white tents were being set up for the SMAP Unit for Humanity grand celebration (it said it started at 7 am or 10 am (Health Fair) but only a few tents and few attendees were there).  We are right next to a large Indian community so lots of meditation and yoga services being offered.  Since the USMNT started today, I wore my official 2016 away USA jersey, one of the nicer darker jerseys that look good in a casual setting.  Good to watch the USMNT win 2-0 but should have routed Bolivia who were very poor.  Hopefully goal difference doesn't come into play.

Issue # 3.1.2 "Ties and Stayin' Alive" (After Matchday 2)

Archive

 Saturday, June 22, 2024

[Dailies: Jun 19-20-21-22 ]

HALF THE GAMES END IN A DRAW; 23 TEAMS STILL ALIVE
21goals and Disabling Below Jobs Tied for 1st

WHITTIER, CA (smt)- After having just one draw in the opening 12 matches, the next 12 saw half (6) end in draws which has kept every team except D1-Poland alive to make the Round of 16.  POL could beat D4-France 15-0 and would lose out to the head-to-head tiebreaker with D3-Austria, who POL lost 3-1 to.  A3-Hungary is the only other team without a point but could advance with a win and some help as 3 points may not be enough, especially starting with a -4 goal differential after two matches.  4 points will not be enough for E4-Ukraine if both games in Group E draw as they will get 4th place (not 3rd) and won't be considered even if other 3rd place teams have just 3 points.  It's the best four 3rd place teams not the best 4 teams outside the top 2 in each group.

E1-Belgium bounced back with a 2-0 win over E3-Romainia to help