Foster's Football Brew #7.1 - Volume MMXXIV.a (7/4)

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Foster's Football Brew #7.1- Volume MMXXIV.a

Euro & Copa America Power Rankings & Hot Takes

I find myself with a day off because it's 4th of July, woo hoo!  So here are some hot takes on the Euro Championships and Copa America!

As we head into the Euro Quarterfinals, we've all seen the final 8 play 4 matches and have a better idea of who can compete for the crown.  My three champion picks in the HWCI Euro Pool aren't looking as strong as I had hoped, but most of these teams do have a chance to go all the way.  Here's my power rankings:

1) ESP:  this young team flashed promise in the recent World Cup, and that team was further bolstered by a few more very talented youngsters (a 16 year old in the starting line up!). Who can deny they’ve played the most dominant game among all teams in the tournament?  They press, possess, and take lots of shots. Spain is the team to beat, and they'll have a stiffer challenge from Germany than they did Croatia or Italy (more in that disaster later). Despite home field advantage, I predict a 2-1 victory for Spain. 

FFB 21.2 Copa Finals Preview

Saturday, July 10, 2021

So this evening at 5pm kicks off Lionel Messi's penultimate opportunity to earn a title for Argentina, one that has eluded La Albiceleste since 1993.

While most the world has focused on the Euro, the Copa America 2021 championships conclude a tournament featuring Wall-to-Wall, heart-filled, non-stop action. In comparison, The Copa has been a hard tackling, dirty affair, tallying 102 yellow cards by 10 teams across 27 matches. The nicer Europeans managed only 136 yellow cards by 24 teams across 50 matches. Don't play in adult soccer leagues in South America without shin guards and supplemental health insurance!

Leo Messi has worn his heart on his sleeve throughout the tourney, hussling, providing leadership, notching many assists, and scoring four goals (tied for tournament lead). He is just two goals short of Pele's South American international competitions record. Messi is surrounded by a younger squad featuring some promising up-and- comers. I would say the team is very nearly as good as the 2014 World Cup team. Lo Celso and Lautaro Martinez are both creative and dangerous, showing better finishing in the final third than 2014 group. However, this defense is more susceptible than the 2014 WC Runners Up. As an ARG fan, that Achilles heel worries me. 

A random note for Argentina fans: if Scaloni starts Nico Gonzalez, ARG has a 50% chance at best to win. If he stays longer than 60 minutes, ARG's chances fall to 35%. I was pulling out my non- existant hair during his poor performance vs Ecuador in the quarterfinals, with blown shots off easy passes from Messi, a near own goal, and useless fouls, one of which led to a yellow card (woulda been a red card at the Euros!) 

I predict Messi gets a goal, with regulation ending in a 2-2 tie with penalty kicks, giving an edge to Brazil given Argentina's PK's history. 

Didn't Expect These Two Teams This Early (7/2)

Who won the PSO?

When the tournament started, all the talk was about 1B-Belgium (#1 team in the world) and 1F-France (deeply talented roster) with maybe a wishful 1D-England thrown in and a little love for reigning champs 3F-Portugal.  1A-Italy was rumbling quietly through a 27-match unbeaten streak while some expected 2E-Spain to regain power in a couple years to let the team mature. Even our own Eric's Foster's Football Brew labeled both ITA and ESP as "pretenders" rather than "contenders".

Well, the time may be now as ESP got an own goal (the tourney's 10th) and survived the penalty shootout with an unfortunate and stubborn 3A-Switzerland, 3:1 (1:1).  ESP missed their first PSO kick, their 6th straight miss, while SUI made their first, their 6th straight make.  But after that, ESP got back on track and SUI had two saved and the latter skied high.  

A very harsh straight red card in the 77' stopped SUI from trying to break a 1-1 tie (after tying it in the 68') and settled to defend.  In the extra time, ESP outshot SUI 17-0 forcing SUI's GK to make 8 saves but SUI succeeded to getting to the PSO to hopefully duplicate their PSO win over FRA.  The ref should have given the yellow first and then let VAR advise on a red.  By giving the Red, there would never be clear evidence to overturn the ref's decision on intent.  You can go Y->R but never R->Y.  Unfortunate.

Meanwhile, ITA scored twice in the first half (a 3rd was ruled offsides by VAR) and held off BEL, 2-1.  Both teams were riding 14-match win streaks in Euro qualifying/tournament but it was ITA who advances, now unbeaten in 32 straight.  BEL had several near misses but didn't manage a shot on goal in the second half.  The #1 team and the golden generation fell short again and we should see new blood for the World Cup next year.

8 picked ESP eliminating 4 who can win pool (11 can win) and 2 for money (24 can win money). 14 picked ITA which eliminated 4 from winning pool (7 left) and 11 from money (13 left).  Carseroni is now in the lead with 96 pts as 1 of 3 (Footballsack (2nd-Tied, 93), Saharm17 (16th-T, 83) were the other 2) who got both correct.  30 went 0-2.  BigRedMessi 1 clinched last with 68 pts (while my Futbol Fabone Twelf (47th-T) will be stuck on 69 pts forever).

But it's Gli Azurri (7th-T, 88) with the best chance to win the pool (31.3%) and Avenger #3 (4th-T, 90) with the best chance to win money (65.6%).  Footballsack (59.4%), Forza Roma (2nd-T) (56.3%), and Carseroni (50%) are the other three with at least a 50/50 chance at money.  Slyelf (4th-T), who at least tied for the most Group Stage wins (25), R16 qualifiers (15), and R16 wins (15), and led since Match Day 11, can no longer win the pool here on Day 18.

Fantasy is 6th (89) but is eliminated while my second pick, Glory to the Heroes, is tied for 20th (82) and can still win 4th.  Rich-inho is 12th (86) and can still win the pool.

FFB-5.1 "CONTENDERS, PRETENDERS, and DARK HORSES: EURO 2020" (6/4)

 

June 4, 2021 
FFB-5.1 "CONTENDERS, PRETENDERS, and DARK HORSES: EURO 2020"

by Eric Foster

CONTENDERS, PRETENDERS, and DARK HORSES:  EURO 2020

 Who Will Exceed and Fall Short of Expectations?

Readers be warned, the views I’m about to inflict upon you are skewed, formulated by a huge soccer fan who cancelled his cable plan in 2020, almost exclusively following top European players in the English Premier League thru Barclay’s Fantasy Football.  Furthermore, the rest of the insight expressed herein originate from dated impressions made during World Cup 2018!

When I compared the odds (based on betMGM) for teams to win the Euro 2020 (oddly not renamed Euro 2021) with FIFA rankings and Power Rankings (The Athletes Hub), I scratched my head.  Recent team playing form aside, there are definitely some underrated and overrated teams.  These disparities made me rethink which of the top teams in the Euro 2020 are Contenders, just Pretenders, or Dark Horses that may surprise us!  I’ve listed these teams in descending order of my own personal rankings of their chances to win the tournament.

1) BELGIUM

Power Ranking:  3^rd

FIFA Europe Ranking:  1^st 

Odds to Win: +550

Verdict:  CONTENDER! 

Some bookmakers had Belgium level with France, or at least better than England…and they may have slipped after Kevin De Bruyne broke his face in the UEFA Championship game.  The Phantom of the EurOpera should be ready to make an appearance with a protective face mask.  He won’t let down his teammates!

Foster’s Football Brew Round 3 – Copa America Finals

Foster’s Football Brew

Round 3 – Copa America Finals

June 24, 2016

The Copa America has one fewer stages of play than the EURO (or World Cup for that matter), so it’s going by quickly now.  As many analysts predicted, Argentina will play Chile in the final.  Here is an overview of the knockout stage of Copa America Centenario:

Quarterfinals Game 1:  USA vs. Ecuador – UNBELIEVABLE

It really helped the US to get off to an early lead.  They aren’t the kind of team that is built for comebacks against superior opponents.  In this case, the Yanks made the most of their opportunities despite not enjoying a ton of ball possession.  It was perhaps the best performance I’ve seen Team USA put together.  They could have even run up the score if Jermaine Jones hadn’t earned himself a red card for putting his hands on another player’s face away from play (a new rule of FIFA requires an automatic red for purposefully touching an opponent above the shoulders away from the run of play).  His absence was coupled by an Ecuador red card, so the stars & stripes managed to hold on to their lead to advance to the semi-finals…quite an achievement! 

On the other hand,

Foster’s Football Brew # 2: Copa America Group Stage Wrap-up

Foster’s Football Brew

Round 2 - Copa America Group Stage Wrap-up

June 16, 2016

The Copa America Elimination stage is upon us, and the US is up first against Ecuador! 

It’s really great that Team USA managed a first place finish in their group, despite getting dominated by Colombia in the opening game.  But as luck would have it, first place gave the Yanks a tough draw: Ecuador, who I’ve ranked as 3^rd best in the tourney after Argentina and Chile.  Some simulation model on Fox Sports predicted Team USA has a 52% chance to win…I would have given the US a 35% chance.  I’m thinking home field advantage factored into Hal’s computations…and the advantage is DOUBLED when you’re the USA playing in Seattle.  It’s gonna be a loud one, can’t wait!  In one of my Copa America pool brackets, I picked Enner Valencia to get the golden boot…but I’d hate to see him score against the Stars & Stripes.

Let’s cover the rest of Group B:  Peru vs. Brazil.  O Selecao seemed to play well the first two games, and figured they could put the tourney on cruise control against Peru, dominating possession and scoring opportunities.  But their efforts were half-a$$ed, as Brazil played

Foster's Football Brew #1 (6/7) - Round 1

Foster’s Football Brew

Round 1

June 7, 2016

It’s summertime, and that means a flurry of international soccer once again!  In this first issue of Foster’s Football Brew, I will give some predictions and previews of the EURO 2016.  But first, I explore a curiosity:  Are games in the World Cup the most exciting in international soccer?  My inclination is to argue no, but do I have evidence to back such a claim?

The majority of the first round games in the Copa America Centenario featured cross-conference matchups between CONCACAF and CONMEBOL teams.  There were only three high-level, hotly contested matches, in my opinion: Mexico vs. Uruguay, Brasil vs. Ecuador, and Argentina vs. Chile.  Two of those three are matches within the same conference.   Now take the USA vs. Costa Rica game and subsequent Colombia vs. Paraguay game: both are

Foster's Futbol Brew # 5: Tournament All-Stars

June 27, 2012

Foster’s Football Brew:  Tournament All-Stars

I got the idea for this short segment after watching Alexi Lalas and Michael Ballack select their tournament Top 11.  I have to disagree with many of Lalas’ picks, and a couple of Ballack’s.  I decided to wait until the quarter finals were over to give top players a chance to shine.  Here’s my take:

Goalie:  Joe Hart had an historically atypical tournament for English goalkeepers…he didn’t F&@# up!!!  He went into the quarters

Foster's Futbol Brew # 4: The Fourth Froth

June 20, 2012

Foster's Futbol Brew: The Fourth Froth

Is anyone getting tired of hearing the same White Stripes song (7 Nation Army, I think) over and over and over again when a goal is scored? Wouldn’t it be cool if each team had a pre-selected (and different) song to play when they netted one? Perhaps we could hear “The Winner Takes it All” when the Swedes score (ode to ABBA)! England would have it best with “We Are the Champions!” Funny enough, the Miami Heat started using the same song as they took a big lead late in Game 4 against the Thunder in the NBA Finals! And the crowd actually started the “woooaaah…woah woah woah woah woooaaah, woooaaah.” Woah is me!

Back to the best sport on Earth. (For those of you not keeping track,

Foster's Futbol Brew # 3: Trouble’s a Brewin

June 13, 2012

Foster's Futbol Brew:  Trouble’s a Brewin (Third Edition)

Well, the first half of Group play has concluded, and as usual, there were plenty of surprises.

Let’s start with Holland losing to the Great Danes.  Well, as I predicted, Arjen Robben would be the guy to hold back the Dutch…but I didn’t expect a loss.  I can count at least half a dozen shots taken by Robben, only one of which was a worthwhile strike, which hit the post.  All other attempts sailed over the cross bar or were an easy save for the Danish keeper.  If Robben

Issue # 2.0.2 "The Reign in Spain Falls Mainly in the..."

Less than 24 hours left to enter!  We are up to 22 entries which is about what I expected so with a late push, hopefully we can speed past 30.  Good luck!  Make sure to follow us on twitter!

http://www.hwci.com/euro/2012/e2012_02.htm
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SPAIN STRUGGLES MAKING GERMANY THE FAVORITE Web Entry is up and less than 24 hours to go; Deadline 9 am Friday

Foster’s Futbol Brew, Batch Number Two

June 5, 2012

Foster’s Futbol Brew, Batch Number Two:

Some of you follow the World Cup, but perhaps this is the first or second time following the European Championships.  Some of you who may not be as familiar with the tourney’s top players, nearly all of whom play for Club soccer somewhere in Europe.  For those of you who follow Club teams like me in the English Premier League (EPL), Serie A in Italy, La Liga in Spain and other European clubs, you've probably begun to hear about some rising stars.  For some European national sides, the next generation is here.  This is a sneak-peak at some of the rising stars to follow on their national squads that should have a big impact:

Issue # 1.0.1 "First Spin-Off: The EURO 2012 Pool"

Here is the official kickoff.  Just 10 days left to enter.  Please answer our poll question(s) on this page and make sure you follow/subscribe to this blog for the latest info.

http://www.hwci.com/euro/2012/e2012_01.htm
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CAN SPAIN BECOME THE FIRST TO WIN BACK-TO-BACK EURO TITLES?
Whether you're a Euro snob or just love beautiful football, EURO here we come

Regular column: Welcome Eric!

Thanks to Eric Foster, who has volunteered to try to do a regular column for the HWCI EURO Pool called "Foster's Football Brew".  This follows in the great tradition of Fernando's Not-So-Deep-Thoughts and Sammy's Pando! or Grodo? columns in past World Cup pools.  His first column is posted here so please show your support and feel free to comment on the post.

Added: Newly created logo!

Foster's Football Brew # 1: First Batch

Foster's Football Brew:  First Batch

Although the recent 2010 World Cup is becoming a distant memory, the Euro 2012 promises to satiate our appetites for top-level international football to ease the pain of waiting until Brazil 2014.

In this opening of a series of emails, I’ll identify the 16 teams playing in the Euro 2012 Tournament, and get you thinking about who you should pick to go all the way.  Will we see a repeat of the World Cup Final, Spain v. Netherlands???  Will UEFA Euro defending Champs from 2008 Spain reign supreme, to be the first European country to ever win three major tournaments in a row (Euro 2008, 2010 World Cup)??

Here's the tournament draw: 

Group A:

Poland (tournament co-host)

Greece

Russia

Czech Republic

Group B: (the unofficial Group of Death!)

Netherlands

Denmark

Germany

Portugal

Group C:

Spain

Italy

Republic of Ireland

Croatia

Group D:

Ukraine (tournament co-host)

Sweden

France

England

So you think you know which two teams will pull thru in each of these groups?  Which are the favored teams, and which are the dark-horse candidates that will pull off a few upsets and slip through?  Here are my preliminary thoughts on the four groups: