Glory to the Heroes

Less than 10 months ago, I was commenting about a spat between Ukraine and Russia on UKR's jersey for Euro 2020 (ne 2021). Glory to Ukraine on the jersey was okay but the additional phrase Glory to the Heroes was interpreted as a rallying cry when you put both together so the latter had to be removed.  UKR still was able to keep the complete outline of their country on the jersey despite RUS claiming the Crimea peninsula was no longer part of UKR.

Well, on Feb 21st, RUS was at it again recognizing two eastern UKR states then three days later attacking UKR from Belarus and western Russia, determined to change the map of UKR again.  Over 400 Ukrainian civilians have been killed with the count unfortunately going up every day.

As it relates to soccer, FIFA did a slow burn penalizing RUS,

England vs Italy Live! (7/11)

1 am PDT:  Eleven hours to go until the Euro 2020 played in 2021 Final.  I'll try to do a live update (tormenting Tuan L or Giacomo G) although the total goals tiebreaker won't affect the top 4 (current total: 5) but will decide if my Futbol Fabone Twelf finishes 47th or 48th (no more than 3 goals!).  ENG is a slight favorite at approx 1.6:1, playing at home, with an over/under of 1.5 goals.

Noon PDT:  I love how all these matches start at the top of the hour.  Easy to predict where the matches are (e.g., 45 after the hour should be nearing halftime, all finish within 2 hours with no extra time).  Expecting 65K in the stadium.

2':  1:57 in, ENG scores on a great finish off by Luke Shaw a great cross.  Footballsack looks good now!  ITA is behind for the first time in 18 matches.

13':  Rain!  But cool at 67F.  Here in LA, 94F and rising.  ENG still attacking which is nice.  Can't find my Becks ENG jersey but maybe it doesn't matter (wore my ARG jersey and ARG won yesterday).  I do have a couple ITA jerseys but rooting for ENG today!  Although I love blue, I still prefer ITA's white... with the horizontal graphics of Puma logo and ITA crest with Italia underneath, it reminds me of a racing jersey (maybe I have Ford v Ferrari on the brain, great movie) for some reason, it looks classic and slick.  I don't care for ENG's home (white) jersey of the Nike and crest in the middle vertically.  Looks odd.  And their blue away is just an alternate mess (though maybe I might get one... cause blue ;-)).

Issue # 9.2.5 "It's Coming Home" (7/10)

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Saturday, July 10, 2021 
Issue # 9.2.5 "It's Coming Home" - History of our Pool

The European Championship Final   -
1934 WC Champs 1938 WC Champs 1968 Euro Champs 1982 WC Champs 2006 WC Champs	vs	1966 World Cup Champs
ITA - Italian Rep (Italy) Federazione Italiana Giuoco Calcio (FIGC)		ENG - England The Football Assoc (The FA)
#7 | 1A | Winner | 5-0-1 4th Final ('68, '00, '12) A1: Beat Turkey 3-0 A4: Beat Switzerland 3-0 A6: Beat Wales 1-0 R16: Beat 2C-Austria 2-1 (ET) QF: Beat 1B-Belgium 2-1 SF: Beat 2E-Spain 1-1 (PSO 4:2)		#4 | 1D | Winner | 5-0-1 1st Final D1: Beat Croatia 1-0 D4: Tied Scotland 0-0 D6: Beat Czech Rep 1-0 R16: Beat 2F-Germany 2-0 QF: Beat 3C-Ukraine 4-0 SF: Beat 2B-Denmark, 2-1 (ET)

ITALY GOING FOR 2ND EURO TITLE; ENGLAND ITS FIRST
Final is Noon PDT Sunday

ROSEMEAD, CA (smt) - After watching Lionel Messi get his (hard-to-believe) first international trophy (Copa America) in Argentina's foul-filled, what happened to VAR, 1-0 win over Brazil, in Rio de Janeiro (BRA) (in front of some fans for once), you wonder if 1D-England will suffer the same fate as BRA at home to 1A-Italy.  ENG is 4-0-1 in London's Wembley Stadium this tourney but ITA does have an extra day of rest.  ITA is making its fourth Euro Final but haven't won it since '68 while ENG is just making its 2nd final, Euro/World Cup combined, but did win the WC Final in '66. 

For years, people have asked about the Euro pool, usually right after each World Cup.  Having not watched the Euros (I don't think it was regularly on live TV until the '08 one), I didn't know what to expect.  Considering each World Cup has "token" teams from Africa and CONCACAF (e.g., blowouts), the '12 Euros only had 16 teams and all were quality.  So even though the setup was different from the World Cups (32 teams), I managed to get it to work.  Granted it was a little easier because it was just the top 2 teams (no 3rd place to worry about like in '16 and '20).  But folks like Eric F convinced me people would be interested and they were, with 39 entries in our first year.

Just our 3rd Euro pool,

Catching Up!

BACKYARD BBQ -- Just trying to see what else it out there right now in world football...  

• Although there have been zero fans and lots of controversy, the top 2 teams in South America will meet for the COMNEBOL Copa America final Saturday night as the #3 team Brazil hosts #8 team Argentina.  Lionel Messi will be going for his first Copa title, believe it or not, as ARG has not won Copa since '93.  BRA is a slight favorite and you can watch on FS1 at 5 pm PDT.
• UEFA is doing away with the away goals tiebreaker for the '21-22 season.  In place since '65, if the two-match aggregate is tied on goals, then whoever has the most "away" goals wins.  Now, if goals are tied, extra time and penalty shootout will commence.  This only applies to club competitions.  Away goals is still the 5th tiebreaker for qualifying and the Nations League playoffs are knockout matches.
• The USMNT won't field its strongest lineup for the CONCACAF Gold Cup, a farce of a tourney that features "qualified" teams of Curacao, Guadeloupe, Martinique, Suriname, and Qatar (yes, I know, not from CONCACAF but invited).  BTW, it kind of technically already started with "Prelims" that took place as triple headers in Ft. Lauderdale on July 2/5/6.  So, ignore everything until the Quarters start on July 24.  The final featuring USA and Mexico will be in Las Vegas's new stadium, so that is cool (well hot, since it will likely be 100°+F).
• The USWNT named their 18-player roster and it includes 17 from the '19 World Cup team.  That is surprising as it is hard to usher a new crop of talented players if they are frozen out by the veterans.  At least the four alternates are newbies.  The team begins its quest July 21 (two days before the Opening Ceremony in front of no fans).

Issue # 8.2.4 "If at First You Don't Succeed..." (7/8)

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Thursday, July 8, 2021 - Issue # 8.2.4 "If at First You Don't Succeed..." - [Dailies: July 6-7]

THIRD TIME NOT THE CHARM FOR SPAIN; ENGLAND REBOUNDS FOR WIN
Footballsack in the lead and wins with ENG; otherwise, Gli Azzurri wins pool

CLEANING THE YARD AT HOME, CA (smt) - Major soccer teams will once again grace the final although one has had much more success than the other with 1A-Italy's five major titles (4 WC, 1 Euro) to 1D-England's lone '66 WC title.  ITA is making its 10th major Final (6 WC, 4 Euros) while this is just ENG's second major final ('66).  But soccer's origins are associated with ENG and having the best domestic league, but yet no titles to show for it.  Will the trophy be "coming home" or will English fans once again drown their sorrows in beer again.

Once again 2E-Spain had 62%+ possession (6th straight), once again the match went to Extra Time (3rd straight), and once again the match with to the penalty shootout (2nd straight).  ESP had survived them all but not today.  ITA failed on their first attempt (ESP opponents had missed 4 straight PSO kicks, 3 saved) but if at first you don't succeed, the next four went in, including a very cheeky fake out of the GK who moved to Jorginho's left and Jorginho calmly slid a slow ball to the right corner for the victory.  The 1:1 (4:2 PSO) victory was technically

It's Coming Home - Almost (7/7)

EL SEGUNDO, CA to DIGNITY HEALTH SPORTS PARK -- 2B-Denmark scored first for the 5th straight match on the tourney's first direct free kick goal for 25 yards out.  But 1D-England tied it on the tourney's 11th own goal before the half and the match eventually went to Extra Time.  But ENG kept pressing (its 21 shots was more than half its combined five-match total (37) and its 10 shots on goal were 67% of their combined 5-match total (15)) and was rewarded with a soft penalty call in ET.  Of course, Harry Kane missed (the 8th PK miss of the tourney) but the save was poor and he scored off the rebound.  The 2-1 win keeps ENG in London for the final against 1A-Italy.  The trophy is almost home for ENG.

Of the four times teams have lost when scoring the first goal, DEN has two of them.  ENG allowed a goal for the first time in the tourney but had their third straight multi-goal match (after scoring just twice in the first 3 matches).  This was the first ET match for both teams and of the 7 that have gone to ET, this is the fourth to feature at least one goal.

19 picked ENG which eliminated Kona Coast Facui's, Cloak, and Forza Roma.  Footballsack still leads with 115 pts.  Two money spots remain, will it be Gli Azzurri and FrankfromSeattle (ITA win) or Slyelf and Fantasy (ENG win)?

If ITALY beats ENGLAND in Final…
         Gli Azzurri 122 points
        Footballsack 115
          Avenger #3 110
    FrankfromSeattle 108
If ENGLAND beats ITALY in Final…
        Footballsack 127 points
          Avenger #3 122
              Slyelf 116
             Fantasy 115

It Starts with the GK (7/6)

You go left and I go right...

iTENNIS PERFORMANCE CENTER, SOUTH EL MONTE, CA -- 1A-Italy's only goal was started by the goalkeeper after catching an attempted cross and less than 15 seconds later, ITA was up 1-0.  But in the 80', 2E-Spain finally finished on a great give-and-go to send the match into their 3rd straight Extra Time.  ESP again had most of the possession and attack in the Extra Time but for their second straight match, it went to the Penalty Shootout.

ITA's first kick was saved but ESP skied high theirs.  After trading two kicks each, ITA scored again putting pressure on Alvaro Morata, who did score the 80' goal but had been up and down, and this was down, as his weak attempt was saved.  Knowing a goal would win it, ITA's Jorginho calmly baited the GK to his left and slotted a slow shot into the right corner for the win.  Not quite a Panenka, but so daring even the Spanish GK applauded after he was duped.

The 1-1 (4-2 PSO) win sent ITA to its 4th Euro final (where they only won once in '68).  ESP only won 1 of its 6 matches in regulation.  They may have the most goals (13) but two were own goals.  So they have the most shots (111) and shots on goal (43) and possession (66.8%) but not much to show for it.

ITA was picked by 5 and this eliminated Rich-inho and Carseroni, leaving 9 entries still alive.  Three can't win the pool and it will come down to either Gli Azzurri (if ITA wins final) or Footballsack (if DEN/ENG win final).

Footballsack is now our leader with 107 pts and can't finish lower than 2nd.  Avenger #3 is 2nd with 102 pts and can finish 2nd/3rd/4th-Tied only.  7 others are battling for the final two spots.  Carseroni is 6th (96) but is eliminated.  Cloak is tied for 11th (90) but can still finish with a tie for 4th.

If ITALY beats ENGLAND in Final…
         Gli Azzurri 122 points
        Footballsack 115
          Avenger #3 110
    FrankfromSeattle 108
If ENGLAND beats ITALY in Final…
        Footballsack 127 points
          Avenger #3 122
              Slyelf 116
             Fantasy 115
If ITALY beats DENMARK in Final…
         Gli Azzurri 114 points
        Footballsack 107
  Kona Coast Facui's 104
          Avenger #3 102 Tie: 7.5 Tied for 4th
               Cloak 102 Tie: 7.5 Tied for 4th
If DENMARK beats ITALY in Final…
        Footballsack 107 points
          Avenger #3 102 Tie: 7.5 Tied for 2nd/3rd
         Gli Azzurri 102 Tie: 7.5 Tied for 2nd/3rd
          Forza Roma 101 

Issue # 7.2.3 "There Were Six Singularities" (7/5)

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Monday, July 5, 2021 -  Issue # 7.2.3 "There Were Six Singularities"

First Semifinal -Wembley Stadium-
ITA - Italian Rep(Italy) Gli Azzurri (The Blues) Federazione ItalianaGiuoco Calcio (FIGC)	ESP - Kingdom of Spain La Roja (The Red One) Real FederaciónEspañola de Fútbol (RFEF)
#7 | 1A | Winner | 5-0-0 6th Semifinal ('68, '80, '88, '00, '12) A1: Beat Turkey 3-0 A4: Beat Switzerland 3-0 A6: Beat Wales 1-0 R16: Beat Austria 2-1 (ET) QF: Beat Belgium 2-1	#6 | 2E | Runner-Up | 2-0-3 5th Semifinal ('64, '84, '08, '12) E1: Tied Sweden 0-0 E4: Tied Poland 1-1 E5: Beat Slovakia 5-0 R16: Beat Croatia 5-3 (ET) QF: Beat Switzerland 1:1 (PSO 3:1)

			Second Semifinal -Wembley Stadium-
			ENG - England Three Lions The Football Assoc (The FA)	DEN - Kingdom of Denmark De Rod-Hvide (The Red-White) Dansk Boldspil-Union (DBU)
			#4 | 1D | Winner | 4-0-1 3rd Semifinal ('68, '96) D1: Beat Croatia 1-0 D4: Tied Scotland 0-0 D6: Beat Czech Rep 1-0 R16: Beat Germany 2-0 QF: Beat Ukraine 4-0	#10 | 2B | Runner-Up | 3-2-0 4th Semifinal ('64, '84, '92) B1: Lost to Finland 1-0 B4: Lost to Belgium 2-1 B6: Beat Russia 4-1 R16: Beat Wales 4-0 QF: Beat Czech Rep 2-1

THE ONE-YEAR LATER TORUNEY HAS BEEN A GEM
Semifinals begin Tuesday; a Marvel Infinity Stone look at the tourney

HOME, CA (smt) - As Marvel's Avengers begin Phase 4 of their saga a year late (with seemingly TV's WandaVision, Falcon & Winter Soldier, and thus far, Loki (2 eps left) not progressing any grand story (but nonetheless entertaining as a standalone series) and pretending Phase 3 never really happened), I wondered how the one-year wait for the Euro 2020 (not 2021) tournament was going to be.  Would there be fans?  Would teams have to withdraw due to COVID-19 positive tests?  Would the tournament be consolidated into one location bubble?  Luckily, everything has been pretty normal with only the near death of a player on the pitch shocking the world.  Well, normal if you consider France, Portugal, Netherlands, and Belgium bowing out way too early.  And normal if you think teams will only have to wait 16 months (rather than 24 due to a winter World Cup) to get another shot at redemption on the grand stage. 

Euro 2020 seemed to have harnessed the power of the Infinity Stones, six immensely powerful gem-like objects tied to different aspects of the universe, to pull off a well-run tournament (so far!).  The first Euros with VAR, there have only

Issue # 6.2.2 "We Will Not Vanish Without a Fight!" (7/4)

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Sunday, July 4, 2021  ***HAPPY INDEPENDENCE DAY***
Issue # 6.2.2 "We Will Not Vanish Without a Fight!"    [Dailies: July 2-3]

UNDERDOGS FIGHT WAY INTO SEMIS
Avenger #3 takes lead and is guaranteed at least a tie for 4th; 11 entries still alive

DIGNITY HEALTH SPORTS PARK, CA (smt) - 2E-Spain were being written off after lackluster ties to start the tournament but then scored 5 goals in consecutive matches before running into a stubborn 3A-Switzerland team.  1A-Italy had an easy group but outshone the #1 team in the world in #1B-Belgium.  2B-Denmark nearly lost a player in the field and lost the first two matches before fighting back to become the first team to qualify after losing the first two and needed to hold off 3D-Czech Republic.  Only #1D-England had an easy path the the semis despite playing away from Wembley Stadium for the first time.

ESP's only goal was an early own goal and took 27 shots (17 in extra time) with no goals to head into the penalty shootout with SUI tied at 1-1.  SUI, which rallied again to tie,

Early Goals Set Tone (7/3)

DEN GK Fingertips Preserve Lead

2B-Denmark scored in the 5', added another in the first half, and held on for a 2-1 win over 3D-Czech Rep to advance to the semis for the first time since '92. DEN had just 13 shots which means they are 3-0 when shooting 16 times or less and 0-2 when shooting 22 times or more.

1D-England scored in the 4', added two quick goals after halftime, and completed the rout of 3C-Ukraine, 4-0.  This was ENG's first match away from London and they didn't lose a beat, doubling their previous goal total (now 8 goals).  They now head back home (their last 3 goals were headed in) for the Semifinal and hopefully, the Final.

DEN was picked by 9 eliminating no one.  21 picked ENG eliminating 2 (leaving 11) and eliminating Forza Roma from winning pool, leaving 5 contenders.  5 got both right while 24 went 0-2.  Three (Avenger #3, Footballsack, and Glory to the Heroes) got 3 of the 4 semifinalists while 12 got none.

Avenger #3 is now in the lead with 102 pts.  FrankfromSeattle also reached the century mark and is 2nd.  Avenger #3, Footballsack, and Gli Azzurri have a 1 in 4 chance to win the pool while Carseroni and Rich-inho each have a 1 in 8 chance to win the pool.  Six others can finish 2nd to 4th.  Full possible outcomes are outlined here.

Note: There was a slight correction to the possibilities as detailed here.

A Missing $ Sign

Should be $E$79:$E$80

Just a heads up that I found an error in my Excel file which affected a few entries that had ENG in the Semis but didn't get the points... ended up that a missing $ sign (which keeps row the same if you move different rows, but didn't as I moved a row down in this case) in the equation didn't carry over for the last few columns, which mainly affected Fantasy.  Thus, Fantasy essentially takes over my Glory to the Heroes pick, and finishes 4th in the scenarios I thought I would finish 4th for.  Thus, I had false hopes for a few days ;-)  The only other change is that Spermicidal FC (who would've had to win a 3-way tie for 4th if DEN>ESP in final) joined me, leaving 11 entries still alive instead of the original 12.

We still have the same 5 who can win the pool.  Daily update later tonight and then the email update tomorrow.  

BTW, I also fixed my possibilities Excel macro which should reduce the time to run the 32K scenarios after the Group Stage from 12-20 hours down to 1-4 hours, depending on PC resources.  So I may go back and edit the possibilities with this small correction.  I hope now I have tailored my Excel file for 24/32 team tourneys but it will have to chance in 2026 when the World Cup goes to 48 teams (hence, another reason I am not keen in doing the Copa or Gold Cups -- too random that small programming errors to adjust for special tourneys frustrate me!).

Have a safe and happy Independence Day weekend!

Didn't Expect These Two Teams This Early (7/2)

Who won the PSO?

When the tournament started, all the talk was about 1B-Belgium (#1 team in the world) and 1F-France (deeply talented roster) with maybe a wishful 1D-England thrown in and a little love for reigning champs 3F-Portugal.  1A-Italy was rumbling quietly through a 27-match unbeaten streak while some expected 2E-Spain to regain power in a couple years to let the team mature. Even our own Eric's Foster's Football Brew labeled both ITA and ESP as "pretenders" rather than "contenders".

Well, the time may be now as ESP got an own goal (the tourney's 10th) and survived the penalty shootout with an unfortunate and stubborn 3A-Switzerland, 3:1 (1:1).  ESP missed their first PSO kick, their 6th straight miss, while SUI made their first, their 6th straight make.  But after that, ESP got back on track and SUI had two saved and the latter skied high.  

A very harsh straight red card in the 77' stopped SUI from trying to break a 1-1 tie (after tying it in the 68') and settled to defend.  In the extra time, ESP outshot SUI 17-0 forcing SUI's GK to make 8 saves but SUI succeeded to getting to the PSO to hopefully duplicate their PSO win over FRA.  The ref should have given the yellow first and then let VAR advise on a red.  By giving the Red, there would never be clear evidence to overturn the ref's decision on intent.  You can go Y->R but never R->Y.  Unfortunate.

Meanwhile, ITA scored twice in the first half (a 3rd was ruled offsides by VAR) and held off BEL, 2-1.  Both teams were riding 14-match win streaks in Euro qualifying/tournament but it was ITA who advances, now unbeaten in 32 straight.  BEL had several near misses but didn't manage a shot on goal in the second half.  The #1 team and the golden generation fell short again and we should see new blood for the World Cup next year.

8 picked ESP eliminating 4 who can win pool (11 can win) and 2 for money (24 can win money). 14 picked ITA which eliminated 4 from winning pool (7 left) and 11 from money (13 left).  Carseroni is now in the lead with 96 pts as 1 of 3 (Footballsack (2nd-Tied, 93), Saharm17 (16th-T, 83) were the other 2) who got both correct.  30 went 0-2.  BigRedMessi 1 clinched last with 68 pts (while my Futbol Fabone Twelf (47th-T) will be stuck on 69 pts forever).

But it's Gli Azurri (7th-T, 88) with the best chance to win the pool (31.3%) and Avenger #3 (4th-T, 90) with the best chance to win money (65.6%).  Footballsack (59.4%), Forza Roma (2nd-T) (56.3%), and Carseroni (50%) are the other three with at least a 50/50 chance at money.  Slyelf (4th-T), who at least tied for the most Group Stage wins (25), R16 qualifiers (15), and R16 wins (15), and led since Match Day 11, can no longer win the pool here on Day 18.

Fantasy is 6th (89) but is eliminated while my second pick, Glory to the Heroes, is tied for 20th (82) and can still win 4th.  Rich-inho is 12th (86) and can still win the pool.

What's the #1 Question Plus Quarterfinal Preview

GOLETA, CA -- As we head into the quarterfinals featuring three 3rd place teams, powerhouses reborn in Spain and Italy, and a hopeful England team hoping to bring the trophy home at Wembley.  2E-Spain avoids 1F-France and will play 3A-Switzerland who rallied from a 3-1 deficit to beat the French in the Penalty Shootout.  The #1 team in the world, 1B-Belgium, plays the hottest team in 1A-Italy, who are unbeaten in their past 31 matches.  

The other group winner, 1D-England won its grudge match against 2F-Germany (it was going to be either them or France or 3F-Portugal) and now get 3C-Ukraine but the match will not be in London for once, but in Rome.  The winner will play either 3D-Czech Republic, who shocked 1C-Netherlands, or 2B-Denmark, who lost two games at home, nearly lost a player on the field, but advanced and crushed 2A-Wales 4-0 in the Round of 16.

But for the 15 entries who can win the 3rd HWCI EURO pool, the more important question is what is the first place prize with 49 entries ($490 pot)?  The answer is $240 or equivalent to 0.0072 Bitcoin.  There are 11 other entries that could finish in 2nd, 3rd, or 4th.  2nd place will get $120, 3rd place will get $80, and 4th place will get $50.  Ties will be broken by total goals in the two semifinal and final matches (3 matches and only regulation or extra time goals count -- no PSO goals or 3-0 forfeits).

Good luck to everyone!

Issue # 5.2.1 "You're Unbelievable" (6/30)

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Wednesday, June 30, 2021          [Dailies: 26-27-28-29]

THREE GROUP WINNERS KNOCKED OUT
Slyelf remains in 1st but Gli Azzurri has best chance to win pool; 26 entries still alive

GOLETA, CA (smt) - While the Group Stage played out as most expected, the Round of 16 produced chaos and unbelievable finishes.  There were 29 goals (3.63/match) with six of those scored in Extra Time (ET).  Half the matches went to ET but just one went to the Penalty Shootout (PSO).  Two teams came back from 3-1 deficits with less than 10 minutes left to force ET while Red Cards doomed two teams.  Substitutes scored 8 times (more than the 6 in the first 36 matches) while yet another own goal happened (9 for the tourney).  Half the group winners lost and three of the four 3rd place teams advanced.  All 3 Group F teams (from the Group of Death) lost while Group B was the only group with its top 2 teams advancing.

2B-Denmark blew out 2A-Wales 4-0 while 3D-Czech Rep and 1D-England posted 2-0 shutouts, the former scoring both goals while up a man and the latter scoring both goals in the last 15 minutes.  1B-Belgium held on to a 1-0 win.  1A-Italy and 2C-Austria played to a nil-nil regulation draw but ITA outscored AUT 2-1 in ET.  3C-Ukraine took advantage of a 1E-Sweden red card in the ET to score a stoppage time winner in ET, winning 2-1. 

Monday was the craziest day as both matches featured the

An Extra Time Stoppage Time Goal (6/29)

120'+1 Goal!

EL SEGUNDO, CA - 1A-England, playing at home, withstood 2F-Germany's attack and scored two late goals to advance to the Quarters, 2-0, posting their 4th straight shutout.  Joachim Low's 15-year tenure with GER ends on a whimper as GER was lucky not lose more than 1-0 to FRA and needed an 84' goal against HUN to advance out of the group.  GER's Thomas Mueller missed a one-on-one with the GK, not even getting the shot on frame which would have tied it.  Amazingly, ENG won a non-PSO Euro match for the first time since '68 and are 10-0-4 in Wembley Stadium.

I love the blue/yellow teams of 1E-Sweden and 3C-Ukraine.  Both teams traded first half goals but an unfortunate (but horrible) tackle by SWE changed the match in the first half of Extra Time as UKR finally capitalized in the 120'+1 (the extra time, stoppage time goal!).

ENG travels for the first time and will be in Rome to face UKR, but if ENG wins, they will be home for the semis and final.  Ironically, UKR benefited when SWE beat POL in the last group stage match to barely make the R16 as the 4th best 3rd place team.

31 picked ENG eliminating 4 (32 still alive) and preventing 5 from winning the pool (15 can win).  3 lost GER as their champ and 17 had them in the Semis.  Fabio was the only one to pick UKR into the Quarters eliminating 6 (26 left).  32 went 1-1 while 17 went 0-2. For the R16, 23 got 5 of 8 while 9 got just 3 of 8.

No change at the top (Slyelf by 2 (90 pts)) but the possibilities are shifting.  Gli Azzurri now has the best chance to win the pool (15.6%) and Slyelf has the best chance at money (57.0%).

Twenty-Three Goals (6/28)

Did that ball just blow past me?

And to think, when the day started, it looked like the terrible 2E-Spain GK misplay for an own goal would be the highlight of the day.  But no!  There were two 3-1 comebacks, 14 goals scored in regulation and extra time and nine goals scored in the penalty shootout (or kicks from the spot) meaning 23 shots saw the back of the net (well, one just crossed the line, our first goal line technology call via the ref's watch).

A hard pass back to the GK skipped by for an own goal giving 2D-Croatia an early 1-0 lead.  But ESP scored three straight to take a 3-1 lead with 13 minutes left.  But CRO did not give up scoring twice, the latter two minutes into stoppage time to force Extra Time.  But in ET, ESP scored twice to pull out a wild 5-3 win, ESP's second straight match scoring five goals (I guess technically, they scored six today).

3A-Switzerland took an early lead and had a chance to double it but missed a PK (Ronaldo 3/3, and the Rest (5/12)) and four minutes later FRA's Karim Benzema scored twice to take the lead.  FRA's 75' goal seemed to seal it but SUI kept attacking to score in the 81' and 90' to complete the comeback.  Extra time started well but then lagged (though FRA hit the crossbar on the last play) and the 3-3 match headed to the PSO.  SUI may have missed the earlier PK but they went 5-for-5 and FRA almost matched, but Kylian Mbappe's kick was saved, giving SUI the 5-4 PSO win.  SUI win their first PSO and make the Quarters for the first time.  The reigning World Cup champions and heavy favorites exit with all that deep talent.

47 had ESP into the Qtrs which prevented two from winning the pool (24 can win it all).  Four picked SUI which eliminated four from winning (leaving 36) and four from winning the pool (leaving 20).  Four went 2-0 (Kona Coast Fauci's, Isayolchap, Spermicidal FC, and NoFixing) while two went 0-2 (Big Blue and Club Med).  After six R16 matches, 31 are 4-2 and 18 are 3-3.  No change at the top with Slyelf still leading by 2 pts (86).

With FRA hurting many entries (19 had them winning it all and 39 in the Semifinals), Slyelf (who has ENG winning it all) now has the best chance at money (53.1%) and winning the pool (15.8%).  Bobby Cee Racer is tied for 22nd (76) but can't win money and NoFixing is tied for 3rd (83) but can't win the pool.  DenMarkMyTerritory is tied for 47th (68) but can still win the pool.

Hand the Ball (6/27)

If I just grab it...

1C-Netherlands, which did not qualify for the 2016 Euros or the 2018 World Cup, disappointed yet again committing a bad handball on a breakaway for a red card as 2D-Czech Republic took full advantage in their 2-0 win.  NED had scored the most goals in the group stage (8) but had zero shots on goal today.  NED had just two shots and no corners in the second half while Patrik Schick put the nail in the coffin in the 80' with his 4th goal.  A panic move, the attempted scoop of the ball by NED's Matthijs de Ligt as he fell at the top of the penalty box with no other Dutch defender close by in the 52' was initially a yellow until VAR gave the red three minutes later.

We will have a new Euro champion as 1B-Belgium outlasted reigning champ 3F-Portugal, 1-0, on their only shot on goal on yet another golazo from outside the box... so many great goals outside the box (can't remember the last LA Galaxy match that had one).  In yet another heavyweight match (can you believe we have already seen FRA-POR, FRA-GER, GER-POR, and now BEL-POR already?  ENG-GER is next!), POR took 16 shots in the second half after falling behind with four of those on goal.  Ronaldo had just a couple of semi-dangerous free kicks (kind of weird we haven't had a direct free kick goal yet).

CZE, ranked #40 in the world, will now face 2B-Denmark and another big showdown will feature BEL and 1A-Italy in the Quarters.

I Kante Lose was the only one to pick CZE into the Quarters to move from a tie for 19th to a tie for 9th.  Two lost NED in their Final.  46 got BEL while 4 lost POR as their champ (14 had them in the Final).  I Kante Lose went 2-0 (but can't win the pool) while 3 went 0-2.  29 have 3 Quarterfinalists while 20 have two.  

7 more can't win money (leaving 40) while 13 more can't win the pool (leaving 26) and losing NED and POR hurt quite a few entries.  FrankfromSeattle has the best chance at winning the pool (14.4%) and money (36.9%) but Slyelf still leads by two (82 pts).  Wolverine1 is now alone in last (63) but can still win 2nd.  Rainman and Rocket Ronaldo are tied for 20th (72) but are eliminated.

Wild Extra Time (6/26)

Header snaps ITA's GA streak

DRIVING A BOAT IN NEWPORT HARBOR -- 2B-Denmark's Kasper Dolberg scored in each half and DEN added two late goals to dominate 2A-Wales, 4-0.  DEN had 16 more shots (giving them 77, or 19.25 per match) and are 2-0 when shooting 16 times and 0-2 when shooting 22+ times.

2C-Austria played 1A-Italy tough (nearly had the lead but VAR rules offsides in the 65') forcing extra time but two ITA subs scored 10 minutes apart to fall 2-1.  AUT did snap ITA's 1168 minute streak without allowing a goal with a great header off a corner in the 114'.  ITA had 26 shots, 9 in the 30-minute Extra Time (AUT also had 7 of its 16 shots in Extra Time).

ITA will face the 1B-Belgium/3F-Portugal winner and DEN will face the winner of 1C-Netherlands/D3-Czech Republic, both games tomorrow.

32 got DEN into the Quarters eliminating two entries (Futbol Fabone Twelf and Otesgo 2) and leaving 41 who can win the pool.  48 got ITA which prevented two more from winning the pool, leaving 39.  31 got both correct and 18 got 1 of 2.  No change at the top as Slyelf still leads with 78 pts. BigRedMessi 1, DenMarkMyTerritory, and Isayoldchap are tied for last with 60 pts.

Elimination Station & Round of 16 Preview

Unlike our HWCI NCAA pools, these soccer pools are not run on software but in Excel.  As such, I created a quick brute force method of calculating the 32,768 possible outcomes is done which is extremely slow (or there is an Excel macro setting I'm not toggling), taking more than 12 hours.  Of course, after tomorrow, that will be cut by 75% (just 8,192 outcomes) so it's really this first run after the Group Stage is complete that takes forever and making any corrections (forgetting to set the correct # of entries), means doing it again.

And what an unexpected result... no one is eliminated from the top 4 money prizes.  Zero.  This is a pre-determined non-elimination leg.  But if you think about it, with the top 14 teams making it plus 26% and 37% picking WAL and CZE, everyone's bracket is in good shape and most will pick different outcomes going forward.  Unless you are like my pick Futbol Fabone Twelf (can only win 4th), whose FRA over POR final is the same as four others and far behind in the standings, you have less margin for error).  But hey, a 0.06% chance to win something is better than Otsego2 who has a 0.05% chance (16 in 32,768).  Slyelf has the best chance to win money at 42.1% with FrankfromSeattle (29.9%), Club Med (24.6%), and NoFixing (21.9%) all having better than a 1 in 5 chance.

In the race to become the 3rd HWCI EURO Pool champion, 43 entries have a chance with Slyelf with a 15.2% chance to win it all with FrankfromSeattle next at 10.1%.  Remember, these possibilities include ties, so a positive outcome is being tied for 1st but you could still lose the tiebreaker (total goals in semifinals and final) and finish 2nd.  Same with overall, you are only guaranteed to finish at least a tie for 4th but you can lose the tiebreaker and end up with nothing.

You can always find the "Possibilities" tab in the main menu next to "Standings".

The Knockout stage begins tomorrow and the upper bracket features #1 Belgium, reining Euro champ Portugal, everyone's favorite France, very hot Italy (undefeated in 30 straight), and three-time Euro champion Spain.  The bottom bracket features a Germany team six minutes from elimination and a lame duck coach and an England team that has only scored twice (13 teams scored more than 2 goals in ONE match).  But both play each other, providing a winnable route to the semifinal for Netherlands, Czech Rep, Wales, or Denmark.  ENG is the only team that will play at home (London) as home teams went 13-7-4 in the group stage.

In other oddities, we already have more PKs awarded (14 - five via VAR) and own goals (8) in the Euros ever.  French fans mistook Budapest for Bucharest and traveled there by mistake for the 3rd match but they could extend their stay as that is where France will play Switzerland.  Although it looks cool, UEFA correctly blocked Munich from lighting it up as a disagreement to Hungarian law (yes, they were playing HUN) as political statements are not allowed (hence, my nickname Glory to the Heroes which was also blocked by UEFA on Ukraine's jersey since when combined with Glory to Ukraine, was a rallying cry) - had Munich wanted to light up the Rainbow Stadium for all 3 matches to support LGBTQ+ month, I'm sure that would've been okay and UEFA did allow the German GK to wear a rainbow captain's armband.  Cristiano Ronaldo is one goal way from the International record (he's at 109).  While Ronaldo is 3/3 on PKs, the rest of the players are 5/11.  A European tournament meant Poland traveled 2,200 miles twice (Seville, ESP to St. Petersburg, RUS) while Switzerland (Rome, ITA to Azerbaijan, AZE; and now to Bucharest, ROU) and Belgium (Copenhagen, DEN and St. Petersburg, RUS; now to Seville, ESP) are logging lots of miles as well.  SUI, however, will have 3 extra days rest than FRA.

Edit (7/3): Small correction to my Excel file... there were 40 who could win pool (not 43) but all 49 were still alive.

Issue # 4.1.3 "Everything That Has Transpired Has Done So According To My Design" (6/24)

Archive

Thursday, June 24, 2021 - [Dailies: 20-21-22-23]

NOT MANY SURPRISES IN THE ROUND OF 16
Slyelf in 1st as six get 15 of 16 R16 teams correct; all 49 entries still alive

CERRITOS TENNIS CENTER, CA (smt) - Was it so predictable?  Everyone seemed to know F2-Portugal, F3-France, and F4-Germany would make the Round of 16.  But a wild ride to get there with GER six minutes from being eliminated.  Of course, D1-England would win their group.  But with two lackluster 1-0 wins and scoring just two goals?  It seems the only real surprises were D4-Czech Rep and A3-Wales making the cut.  Could be the strongest Round of 16 we've seen.

A2-Italy, B3-Belgium, and C1-Netherlands won their group with max of 9 points while D1-England and E2-Sweden won to get to 7 pts.  A4-Switzerland and D2-Croatia each won 3-1 to secure their R16 spot while B1-Denmark routed B4-Russia 4-1 to claim 2nd on goal differential over B2-Finland, who missed the cut.  C3-Austria beat C2-Ukraine 1-0 to take 2nd but UKR still snuck in as the last 3rd place team.  Power teams needing results got them as a fun E1-Spain routed E4-Slovakia 5-0 (SVK's GD got hammered and missed the cut), F4-Germany had to rally twice against F1-Hungary (2-2 draw), and F2-Portugal got 2 PKs from Ronaldo to tie F1-France 2-2 to advance (though POR would have had advanced if they lost by a few as long as HUN didn't win... but HUN was leading for most of the match).

The only group winner that was a surprise was