Foster's Football Brew #1 (6/7) - Round 1

Foster’s Football Brew

Round 1

June 7, 2016

It’s summertime, and that means a flurry of international soccer once again!  In this first issue of Foster’s Football Brew, I will give some predictions and previews of the EURO 2016.  But first, I explore a curiosity:  Are games in the World Cup the most exciting in international soccer?  My inclination is to argue no, but do I have evidence to back such a claim?

The majority of the first round games in the Copa America Centenario featured cross-conference matchups between CONCACAF and CONMEBOL teams.  There were only three high-level, hotly contested matches, in my opinion: Mexico vs. Uruguay, Brasil vs. Ecuador, and Argentina vs. Chile.  Two of those three are matches within the same conference.   Now take the USA vs. Costa Rica game and subsequent Colombia vs. Paraguay game: both are

within the same conference, and I don’t think anyone can argue those may have been the most exciting games thus far.  So, 4 of the 5 most intensely contested games came between conference rivals.  The exception involves Uruguay, who has a tendency to be chippy and collect red cards like moths attracted to light bulbs…they just can’t help themselves, even when Luis “Tyson” Suarez is off the field!

These regional tournaments differ from the World Cup in the level of familiarity between teams within each respective region.  If that’s the case, we’re in for another great EURO tournament this year, despite the dreadful threats of terrorism overshadowing these games in France.  All 24 European rivals, large and small, have played each other many times in their history and in qualifying for this event.  Here are my observations and predictions for EURO 2016:

1)     The top 5 highest goal scorers in the 10 qualifying group games for the EURO include Robert Lewandowsky (Poland, 13 goals),  Zlatan Ibrahimović (Sweden, 11 goals), Thomas Müller (Germany, 8 goals), Edin Džeko (Bosnia, 8 goals), and Artyom Dzyuba (Russia, 8 goals).  One may want to look at the opponents of each of these respective teams to predict who has the best chance of getting the golden boot award at EURO 2016!

2)     Strangely absent – HOLLAND.  Semi-finalists and producers of the best goal in the World Cup (Robin “The Flying Dutchman” Van Persie) couldn’t manage to qualify for the EURO… and recently-sacked Manchester United Manager Louis Van Gaal isn’t to blame, as he stopped managing in 2014!

3)     Who are the bookies’ FAVORITES?

a.       The clear favorites are France (+300), Germany (+450), and Spain (+500) 

b.      The next four best teams are England, Belgium, Italy, and Portugal (+800 to +1600)

c.       All other teams are at best 25 to 1 odds, including perennial contenders Italy, Portugal, and Croatia

4)     Dark Horse Candidates:  If Katy Perry follows soccer, I would think she likes Austria or Wales.  For their part, Wales beat and tied Belgium in their two matchups, losing only one other match out of eight to others in their qualifying group.  The “Eastern Empire” impressively went undefeated, with just one tie in ten matches against the likes of Sweden and Russia.  They may not have much depth, but both teams’ starting rosters can take them deep in the tournament.

5)      Originally, I predicted France had the edge to win this tournament on account of home field advantage, but they’ve had a poor run as of late.  Since Germany won the World Cup, this tournament is theirs to lose.  However, I get the feeling their core players have lost a step.  Spain has played well, and continues to feature a great midfield and defense.  However, I’m not impressed with their strikers, and manager Vicente del Bosque would be wise to drop Casillas in favor of David de Gea, perhaps the world’s second best goalie (after Neuer).  Given Spain’s weaknesses, I’m leaning toward Belgium to win it all.  I’m perplexed at the odds (9 to 1) given their incredible set of talented, maturing young players and the team’s #2 ranking in the world.  If they didn’t have to play Argentina in the quarterfinals of the World Cup 2014, Belgium was good enough to reach the Final game against Germany.  

Will France step up to challenge powerhouse Spain, up and comers Belgium, and defending World Cup Champs Germany?  Perhaps if they recapture the chemistry and intensity they showed in the World Cup, their predominantly young and talented team could go all the way.

While we wait for the EURO 2016 to start this Friday, I will continue to be glued to the TV with a double dose of Copa America games on a daily basis.  The matchups are thoroughly enjoyable, and while it’s not hard to predict a South American team will take the trophy, my dark horse in this is Ecuador.  They kept Brasil in check with a 0-0 tie…and got a potential game winner disqualified (a shot along the back line that bounced into the goal off the Brasil goalie!  When will FIFA introduce instant replay to soccer!!??).  Ecuador should at least reach the semi-finals in the company of Argentina, Brazil (or Colombia?), and Chile. 

As for the CONCACAF teams…Mexico may have looked good against Uruguay, but they always manage to find a way to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.  While I would love to see Team USA go the distance, they couldn’t muster decent possession or enough quality scoring opportunities against Colombia.  If they qualify for the knockout stage, they will be a Runner-Up, meaning they will likely run into a tough matchup with a CONMEBOL giant in the quarterfinals.

Let’s hope the quality and intensity of soccer in the EURO matches that of Copa America!