June
4, 2021
FFB-5.1 "CONTENDERS, PRETENDERS, and DARK HORSES: EURO 2020"
by Eric Foster
CONTENDERS, PRETENDERS, and DARK
HORSES: EURO 2020
Who
Will Exceed and Fall Short of Expectations?
Readers be warned, the views I’m about to inflict upon you
are skewed, formulated by a huge soccer fan who cancelled his cable plan in
2020, almost exclusively following top European players in the English Premier
League thru Barclay’s Fantasy Football.
Furthermore, the rest of the insight expressed herein originate from
dated impressions made during World Cup 2018!
When I compared the odds (based on
betMGM) for
teams to win the Euro 2020 (oddly not renamed Euro 2021) with
FIFA rankings and Power
Rankings (The
Athletes Hub), I scratched my head.
Recent team playing form aside, there are definitely some underrated and
overrated teams. These disparities
made me rethink which of the top teams in the Euro 2020 are Contenders, just
Pretenders, or Dark Horses that may surprise us!
I’ve listed these teams in descending order of my own personal rankings
of their chances to win the tournament.
1) BELGIUM
Power Ranking:
3rd
FIFA Europe Ranking:
1st
Odds to Win: +550
Verdict:
CONTENDER!
Some bookmakers had Belgium level with France, or at least better than England…and they may have slipped after Kevin De Bruyne broke his face in the UEFA Championship game. The Phantom of the EurOpera should be ready to make an appearance with a protective face mask. He won’t let down his teammates!
Hopefully Manager Roberto Martinez puts Eden Hazard up
front, an adjustment they made after halftime after falling behind 2-0 to Japan
in the quarterfinals…it worked with aplomb.
I’m not sold on Lukaku in the forward position… he blew too many chances
in that games and others in the World Cup.
Let KDB be playmaker to E. Hazard, the scoring machine!
The Red Devils are the oldest and most internationally
capped side in the tournament. The
best finish Belgium has ever accomplished is 2nd place against W.
Germany in 1980. With the Golden
Generation peaking, this is Belgium’s best and perhaps last chance for a very
long time to become champions of Europe.
This little powerhouse is my favorite to hoist the trophy on Sunday, July
11th!
2) FRANCE
Power Ranking:
1st
FIFA Europe Ranking:
2nd
Odds to Win:
+450
Verdict:
CONTENDER!
France basically has the same squad from World Cup 2018.
They need no introduction.
It’s rare for a Europe-based World Cup winner to subsequently go on to win the
subsequent Euro (France in 2000 was one of the two) … yet it feels like this
tournament is theirs to lose.
Perhaps it comes down to which version of the versatile Paul Pogba will show up
at the Euro? The one who dazzled at
World Cup 2018, or the one who’s had a frustrating couple seasons at Manchester
United?
3) PORTUGAL
Power Ranking:
5th
FIFA Europe Ranking:
4th
Odds to Win: +800
Verdict:
CONTENDER!
Move over Cristiano Ronaldo, for here come two dual-threat,
goal-scoring playmakers the world should follow closely:
Bruno Fernandes and Diogo Jota.
These guys made immediate impacts at Man. U (notching 18 goals,
third-highest in the EPL during his first full season in the league) and
Liverpool (notching many goals and assists despite an injury-disrupted campaign,
just one season after playing well for Wolverhampton, showing his adaptability).
And then there’s Ruben Dias…he was Man City’s top defender (out of
nowhere, signed from Benfica), and even selected by Football Writers'
Association as Footballer of the Year in his first season.
He’s one of the reasons Man City won the EPL this season.
Honorable mentions to other emerging and/or improving players include
Wolverhampton Midfielder Ruben Neves and Man City Midfielder Bernardo Silva.
While this rising crop of talent was young and on the bench during the
last World Cup, their inclusion in the starting 11 gives Portugal swagger in
defense of their 2016 Euro title.
Portugal is no longer about one hot shot with a few decent
supporting actors and stubborn defense.
They are a legit, emerging contender, and must be considered underrated.
Their biggest hurdle is pulling out of Group F, the Group of Death.
They’ll have to hold their own against France, Germany, and Hungary.
If they can get the top two spots, they have a great shot at reaching the finals.
4) ENGLAND
Power Ranking:
4th
FIFA Europe Ranking:
3rd
Odds to Win: +500
Verdict:
PRETENDER!
Like most of the top European teams, there hasn’t been a
lot of turnover for The Three Lions.
They’ve got a world-class striker up front in Harry Kane, but is veteran Jordan
Henderson going to be the key playmaker to set up loads of goals?
The answer is NO. Are the
up-and-coming Phil Foden or Declan Rice experienced enough to command the field?
Not fully, but they will make things exciting.
Can Kieran Trippier repeat his surprising World Cup performance?
Newcomers Dominic Calvert-Lewin (F) and Jack Grealish (M) will need to
prove their worth as recent add-ons to the squad.
While I give credit to England for playing well in the
qualifiers, they’re good against the bad and average teams, but struggle against
the top tier of competition. They
had arguably the easiest schedule at World Cup 2018, so getting to the semis was
a bit lucky. England will need a
strong defense to overcome better opponents.
Without a key ball handling playmaker (they don’t have a maestro like
Luka Modric or Kevin De Bruyne!), England will ultimately get frustrated by
teams like Belgium, France, or Portugal somewhere down the line.
They simply can’t win 3 or 4 elimination matches in a row.
They’re probably the 4th or 5th best team in the
tournament. Being overrated, I have
to call them Pretenders!! And so
far…England has NEVER won the UEFA European Championships.
Will they prove me and the footballing world wrong!
5) SPAIN
Power Ranking:
6TH
FIFA Europe Ranking:
5th
Odds to Win: +800
Verdict:
PRETENDER!
La Furia Rioja remains loaded with great talent in goal,
defense, and midfield. However, the
squad has a near unrecognizable set of forwards, save journeyman Alvaro Morata,
who isn’t exactly going to light the tournament afire.
Morata has had underwhelming if not disappointing runs at various top
clubs, including Chelsea, Atlético Madrid, and most recently at Juventus,
playing for three teams in just four seasons.
Spain would have been best suited with the scrappy Diego Costa, but
dropping out for personal reasons, Morata sadly is the best choice available at
striker.
España has the buen suerte of landing in Group E,
which consists of Poland, Slovakia, and Sweden.
While not pushovers, this group gives Spain a great chance to take first.
Another bright spot for Spain, and the reason I barely ranked them ahead
of Italy? They’re the youngest team
in the tournament. This bodes well
for their ability to succeed at World Cup 2022 and beyond.
Spain is built to dominate ball control and set their own
tempo, positioning them for a fairly easy path to the quarterfinals.
Once they reach the elimination rounds,
they’ll struggle to string three victories in a row.
They’ve got a 50-50 chance of reaching the semis.
6) ITALY
Power Ranking:
2nd
FIFA Europe Ranking:
6th
Odds to Win: +1000
Verdict:
PRETENDER!
Similar to Spain, Italy lacks talent in the attacking
department. This group is riding
some momentum in terms of recent form, but if they fall behind, they aren’t as
dangerous as other teams. Nothing
Ciro Immobile can do will prove me wrong, ‘cause he ain’t a “doer”.
This edition of Il Azzurri is similar to most; tight
defense with minimal scoring. Their
MO has been proved time and again over the past 25 years; when considering which
games I can afford to skip, Italy will dominate those decisions!
The last exciting squads fielded by Italy were from the 1980’s thru the
1994 World Cup, when Roberto Baggio famously sailed one high over the crossbar
in the PK’s vs. Brazil in the final game.
Italy’s listing ahead of Belgium is a true headscratcher,
and simply another reason they’re a Pretender in my book.
Their odds to win are perhaps a reflection of the danger posed by teams
in Group A: Switzerland, Turkey, and
Wales, two of which are capable of scoring against anyone, the third of which
always poses a tough defense that will no-doubt game plan to secure a draw
against Italy in Matchday 2 of 3 in the first round.
7) GERMANY
Power Ranking:
10TH
FIFA Europe Ranking:
8th
Odds to Win: +700
Verdict:
PRETENDER!
Germany is lacking depth and world-class talent at midfield
and defense. Their starting XI
doesn’t compare to squads of yesteryear. While
many of Die Mannschaft’s past championship teams were greater than the sum of
their parts, this edition looks much like the recent World Cup squad (which did
not advance out of group play after losing to Mexico & S. Korea).
The oddsmakers give them more credit than they deserve.
Perhaps because, unlike Italy and Spain, they still have talent in their
pool of strikers (stalwart Thomas Müller with 101 caps and 38 goals!).
Expect higher-scoring (and certainly more exciting) games when Germany is
on the pitch!
Will Deutschland survive Group F- the Group of Death, which
includes France, Portugal, and Hungary (not a complete push over)?
If they get to the Round of 16 as a wild card or surprise 2nd
place, they’re not good enough to dominate their way thru four more matches.
They’re most likely to have a tough matchup in the Round of 16.
This tournament is manager Joachim Low’s last hurrah – Germany will need
to find his replacement after Euro 2020 has concluded, and I’m predicting
they’ll call it “a rebuilding effort”.
8) CROATIA
Power Ranking:
12th
FIFA Europe Ranking:
10th
Odds to Win: +4000
Verdict:
DARK HOSE!
Croatia is truly a toss-up.
One the one-hand, their line-up is nearly the same as the
group that reached the World Cup Final vs. France.
On the other hand, all three of their elimination games went to extra
time, two of which were won on penalties.
Croatia is in Group D, with England being their only major
competition, so I like their chances of advancing to the knock-out stage.
But then again, they’ve lost 6 of their last 11 matches.
They’re not in good form.
And maybe Croatia only plays well when it matters…like in a
tournament. Their stout defense,
ball handling, and counter-attack capabilities will keep them in any game.
A team that is truly greater than the sum
of its parts, Croatia will make at least a quarterfinals appearance.
If they still have the heart and determination from 2018, they’ve got a
50-50 chance of reaching the semis.
9) HOLLAND
Power Ranking:
7th
FIFA Europe Ranking:
11th
Odds to Win: +1200
Verdict:
DARK HORSE!
The Flying Dutchman will no doubt compete in this
tournament. It’s time for rising
talent Frenkie de Jong to repeat his strong club performances for his national
squad. He’ll need to develop
chemistry w/ Memphis Depay to threaten their opponents in the attacking third.
Holland is arguably in THE easiest foursome, Group C.
They should dispatch of Austria, North Macedonia, and Ukraine to take
first place in the group, paving the way to a winnable Round of 16 match.
They have a decent chance of reaching the semifinals, where they’ll need
some good fortune to go any further.
10) DENMARK
Power Ranking:
8th
FIFA Europe Ranking:
7th
Odds to Win: +2800
Verdict:
DARK HORSE!
I know, I know, how can I think a Scandinavian team has a
shot at winning? Don’t sleep on this
squad… they’re ranked higher than Germany and have a history of good
performances at the Euro, including a championship in 1992.
Denmark has established a surprising capability to score,
solid defense, and ability to compete with top teams.
Their rankings aren’t as skewed by wins over weak opponents;
they’ve beat or drawn with legit teams in qualifying.
Will they win the Euro 2020?
Doubtful, but they will go farther than expected.
I favor them to secure a strong second place finish in Group B behind
Belgium, so they’ll have a decent chance to win at least their first elimination
match.
I’m also setting my sights on the 47th edition of
the Copa América tournament, which unfortunately is scheduled to overlap the
Euro quite closely. Stay tuned for some
insights into this equally exciting international soccer competition!
© 1998-2021 HWCI Productions
© 2012-2021 Eric Foster
HWCI circa 1990
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