Foster's Football Brew #7.1- Volume MMXXIV.a
Euro & Copa America Power Rankings & Hot Takes
I find myself with a day off because it's 4th of July, woo hoo! So here are some hot takes on the Euro Championships and Copa America!
As we head into the Euro Quarterfinals, we've all seen the final 8 play 4 matches and have a better idea of who can compete for the crown. My three champion picks in the HWCI Euro Pool aren't looking as strong as I had hoped, but most of these teams do have a chance to go all the way. Here's my power rankings:
1) ESP: this young team flashed promise in the recent World Cup, and that team was further bolstered by a few more very talented youngsters (a 16 year old in the starting line up!). Who can deny they’ve played the most dominant game among all teams in the tournament? They press, possess, and take lots of shots. Spain is the team to beat, and they'll have a stiffer challenge from Germany than they did Croatia or Italy (more in that disaster later). Despite home field advantage, I predict a 2-1 victory for Spain.
The only knock on Spain: why on Earth is Alvaro Morata still the starting striker? Is he their best option? He struggled in the last two tourneys, squandering many hard earned, creative opportunities generated by his team. Finishing could be their Achilles heel in the final rounds of the Euros.
2) FRA: With and without Mbappe, France hasn’t reached their potential. Perhaps there’s a hangover from their World Cup finals loss? Despite no goals scored by France in group play, nobody wants to play them. I think Portugal will struggle to generate chances against a still stout French defense and a team that continues to press hard, steal possession, and work the fast breaks aggressively. The road to the Euro title runs thru France.
3a) NED: There are teo Dutch teams, and it seems to depend on which side of the bed they woke up on. At times, they’ve lacked team chemistry. In the last game, they were dominant and made (mostly) good decisions in transition and scoring opportunities. I rate them very close to the three other teams below. If they played with them in a group, I would give them an edge given their talent levels in all phases, including manager (Ronald Koeman) compared to the rest.
The Netherlands, BTW, are one of my three pool picks to win it all. It helps they are in the easier side of the bracket, including the softest matchup in the Quarterfinals round, while also avoiding 4 heavyweights until the final match.
3b) GER: Given the track record of host nations not winning the Euro, I opted not to pick Germany to win it all. I also have to against the grain somewhere in the pools, as I knew they would be a popular pick. They’ve been good, but they have an age issue. Many of their stars are past their prime, and some of their role players are not the top players in their respective club leagues.
Will Germany overachieve if they play well as a team, being greater than the sum of their parts? It will come down to veterans making disciplined decisions at key moments against a younger, faster, and more talented Spain.
3c) SUI: I knew Switzerland was good, and have to say they are underrated. This is in fact the best edition of SUI I’ve seen play. They’ve always been well coached on defense, being stingy. They’ve also been known for scoring on corners and other set pieces. Now, they have a few key personnel in their prime at forward and midfield who can create chances in the run of play to score. And Shaqiri is not being one of those- he had the goal of the tournament so far, in my book.
To me, Switzerland IS the dark horse. Pundits know they are defeats and can go a few rounds deep, but nobody expects them to win it all. At Euro 2024, they have a chance, and I’ll be watching!
3d) ENG: This underperforming team most embodies a group that is less than the sum of their parts. England is FULL of all stars, and one can only think they’ve got a managerial problem. So far, they’ve only played well when behind- against Slovakia. There is ZERO urgency to pressure opposition, they’re very SLOW in possession, building from the back- the strategy teams use when they’re up with a 3-goal lead.
England has the talent to win it all, and they showed how dangerous they can be in the last 20 minutes of regulation in the Round of 16. After their second goal early in extra time, they sat back again. They need to watch ESP, ARG, BRA, and COL on how much energy a great team expends in retaining possession and mounting attacks.
7) POR: Similar to England, this star-studded group is less than the sum of their parts. Ronaldo and company missed some major opportunities and had to go all the way to penalties to beat an unlucky Slovenia. They took some great shots that were saved by an amazing GK Costa. Portugal are a dangerous group, but they look like they haven’t played together enough, much like England. They have a shot, but I don’t see them winning three games in a row- unless they can manage three ties and win the PK’s!! That’s how Croatia got to the World Cup Finals in 2018!
8) TUR: While they get their captain back after suspension, they'll be missing several key players due to additional yellow card suspensions. Even if they had all their starters, and despite a near "home field advantage" with all the Turkish diaspora cheering them on in Deutschland, Turkiye's luck has run out.
Special Euro Notes:
Il Azzuri has the best goalkeeper on the planet; I have to say Donnarumma tops Emiliano Martinez (ARG) and a handful of other GK's who've played exceptionally well in these summer tournaments, although we can't say how he'd compare to Martinez or Diogo Costa (POR) in PK’s, since ITA was knocked out with no hope of their usual PK shootout heroics. Other than Donnarumma, I'm no longer surprised why Italy missed the last World Cup.
Austria was molding itself as a dark horse candidate. However, their run came to an end due to the old adage "offense wins games, defense wins championships." Their luck was bound to run out. Compare that to Morocco's unexpected World Cup run, and it's more proof there's wisdom in that statement.
The playing field in Europe really has leveled; there's near-parity with the sub-elite teams, and we can see those teams are good enough to occasionally beat the elites in any given match.
That brings me to Copa America, a tournament with little parity: there are many Davids and just a few Goliaths. Here are my power rankings in terms of who has the best chance of winning the tournament (among the quarterfinalists):
1) ARG: They are the favorites, and yet they have one less difficult match given they have to play Ecuador (no slouch so long as striker Enner Valencia avoids another red card!), after which the winner plays the victorious squad emerging from the Venezuela v Canada match. VENEZUELA?? They've been the laughing stock of CONMEBOL for years. I still can't believe they beat Mexico and get to play Canada to reach the Copa America semi-finals!
Argentina continue to play a high tempo, high press strategy of total football l, enabling more opportunities to score with fewer chances for the opposition. They have a 50% chance of defending their title.
2) COL: These guys are the real deal. They’ve improved with James Rodriguez back as their captain. He’s got a bag full of assists from run of play and set pieces. He and the whole team are impressive, playing a high energy, high press style to emulate the other South American giants. They should make easy work of Panama before playing the winner of URU v BRA.
3a) URU: I like Uruguay to beat Brazil. They play better as a team, and have the talent in key positions to create many chances and convert. This is Darwin Nuñez’s opportunity to emerge as an true international superstar.
3b) BRA: This team is about on par with Uruguay, but I'm giving Uruguay the edge, because they surely would've scored against Costa Rica! Brazil is the second best team in pressing & possession, which always keeps them in the hunt to win any game. However, their finishing shots in the final third has generally been poor, save Raphina's amazing free-kick goal. Reminds me of Portugal and England- generating opportunities, but too seldom closing the deal.
5) ECU: These guys play hard and are competing at the highest level seen from Ecuador in a long time. While they aren’t that close to the top four elite teams, they are clearly the next best team in the tourney.
At age 34, this is may be star striker Enter Valencia’s last dance.
6) VEN: Notice there is no sixth among the Quarterfinalists. That should’ve been Team USA (or am I just biased?). We were one dumb red card away from getting into the elimination rounds. That makes it twice Venezuela benefitted from a red card (E Valencia during VEN’s first match vs ECU in the group stage).
7) CAN: Oh Canada… they slipped into the Quarters. And yet they have flashed some great moments in the final third, exceeding expectations. They COULD beat Venezuela. Either way, they have no chance of winning the whole thing. But good for them getting out of the group stage.
8) PAN: Can Panama upset Colombia? DOUBTFUL. But I’ll still watch this lopsided match!
Eric R. Foster
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