Foster’s Football Brew
Round 2 - Copa America Group Stage Wrap-up
June 16, 2016
The Copa America Elimination stage is upon us, and the US is
up first against Ecuador!
It’s really great that Team USA managed a first place finish
in their group, despite getting dominated by Colombia in the opening game. But as luck would have it, first place gave
the Yanks a tough draw: Ecuador, who I’ve ranked as 3rd best in the
tourney after Argentina and Chile. Some simulation
model on Fox Sports predicted Team USA has a 52% chance to win…I would have
given the US a 35% chance. I’m thinking
home field advantage factored into Hal’s computations…and the advantage is
DOUBLED when you’re the USA playing in Seattle.
It’s gonna be a loud one, can’t wait!
In one of my Copa America pool brackets, I picked Enner Valencia to get
the golden boot…but I’d hate to see him score against the Stars & Stripes.
Let’s cover the rest of Group B: Peru vs. Brazil. O Selecao seemed to play well the first two
games, and figured they could put the tourney on cruise control against Peru, dominating
possession and scoring opportunities.
But their efforts were half-a$$ed, as Brazil played
“not to lose.” They
were robbed with an obvious hand-ball goal (¿La Otra Mano de Dios?) that was
erroneously allowed as a goal. When is
FIFA going to implement an NFL-style red-flag challenge system? They should also mandate an automatic review
of every scoring and penalty kick decision….that would erase bad officiating
from the results of soccer games.
Nevertheless, Brazil had it coming to them. Content with a tie, they coulda, shoulda,
woulda tried harder to score a goal the first 70 minutes of the game.
Will Peru carry any hand-ball guilt going up against Colombia? Hardly!
But they will be a modest underdog. Colombia has a lot of well-rested
players. Somehow, their 3-2 loss to
Costa Rica turned out to be lucky for two reasons: 1) Getting Peru instead of
Ecuador and 2) Having a fresh starting line-up. Colombia’s pace and talent will wear down the
Incas, whose legs will be going on only 4 days’ rest. But Los Cafeteros shouldn’t get too
complacent on defense with one of the tournament’s most prolific international
goal scorers on the field, Paolo Guerrero.
He’s an imposing presence and tough as nails. I can’t remember the last time I saw a striker
go up hard to contest every ball. By the
75th minute, his tank will be empty…Peru better hope for an early
goal. Chances are, it’s a 2-1 victory
for Colombia.
Moving to the Chile vs. Mexico match-up: Chile would normally be a solid favorite, but
Mexico nearly enjoys their own type of home field advantage in this tournament…there
will be no empty seats at Levi Stadium. Will Mexico’s ace Chicharito be on the
receiving end of high-quality crosses to display his clinical finishing
talents? Mexico’s performance will be a
function of their midfield, which needs to step up their quality and pace of
play. Chile fields the shortest team in
the tournament, so Mexico’s best chance to score will be in the air with
in-swingers from the wings, corner kicks, and set pieces. Their chances will be limited, as Chile will
master possession. With defense of their
Copa America title on the line, and Alexis Sanchez hitting on all cylinders, I
see Chile winning this game by a two-goal margin, a 3-1 final score line.
Finally, the Argentina vs. Venezuela game: should be the
most lopsided, if no least exciting of the quarterfinal rounds. Venezuela’s performance this tournament
exceeded expectations. However, let’s acknowledge
Venezuela rode their way into the elimination round on the coattails of an
angry, underperforming, Suarez-less Uruguay.
I predict La Albiceleste will carry a 1-0 lead deep into the game the
outmatched Venezuelans, doing just enough to avoid injuries and cautions. Argentina should add a goal late in the game,
in garbage time, as their opponents throw extra bodies downfield in their
desperate attempts to tie things up.
Leo “La Pulga” Messi had quite a brilliant 20-minute span as
a substitute in Game 2 of the group stage for the Argentines. While in contention for the Golden Boot,
he’ll play more as the assist man against Venezuela, perhaps setting up Sergio Aguero
for the first goal. I see Kun Aguero
emerging as a clutch, if not top goal tournament scorer, raising his
international profile during Copa America. Maradona’s former son in law has come in as a
sub so far in this tournament to limit the strain on his injury-prone legs. The
manager is wisely holding him back until his talents are most needed late in
the tournament. Expect Aguero to get on
the scoreboard against the winner of the US vs. Ecuador match in the semi-final
game.
Moving across the pond, I must declare: after watching the
first half of group stage games of the EURO, the matches’ pace of play don’t
keep up with Copa America. With a few exceptions, every team and player
has put all their energy into each game in the Copa. Most EURO games have been slow going, with a
few exciting goal scoring attempts here and there. Hopefully the timid score lines will change
as the tournament goes forward.
An exception to the more docile EURO games that I watched
was Belgium vs. Italy...I expected Il Azzurri to focus on defense as usual, but
they flashed many a great counter attacking efforts. Italy’s positioning and passing showed the
players were on the same page from the start.
I can’t say the same about Belgium...a real disappointment, mainly from Everton’s
talisman Lukaku, who had poor touches when receiving long crosses. Heck, he even flubbed short passes. Lukaku lost numerous possessions, preventing the
not-from-Manchester Red Devils from setting up scoring opportunities. Later on, younger replacement forward Origi missed
an open header on goal. Perhaps the
Belgians woke up on the wrong side of bed, or simply couldn’t perform under the
pressure posed by the media on this golden generation. In fairness to Belgium, the entire back line
of Italy is comprised of Serie A Champs’ Juventus defense. Let's see if they can redeem themselves
against lesser opponents Ireland and Sweden.
Another impressive game was Iceland vs. Portgual, the latter
of which often disappoints in tournament play.
Ronaldo had some good moments, but couldn’t convert his chances to put
the game away. On the other hand, it was
incredible to watch a team with ONE TENTH of their country’s ENTIRE population
cheering for them in the stadium!
Iceland is a true David among Goliaths at the EURO. I’m really curious to see how they fare
against Hungary and Austria.
I can’t remember a time when there were so many soccer games
to watch every day, so I’m carefully choosing which games I watch closely….I
don’t wanna OD on futbol!
-Eric Foster
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